【Dollar/Yen】Rebound but stops here for now ｜ From here, looking downward (gold is in an opposite correlation with a bullish bias)

From the recap of the previous article.

I wrote that "the USD/JPY is likely to rebound strongly."
Indeed, the USD/JPY rebounded sharply.

But now, the view has progressed another step.
This rebound is a temporary high.
From here, I view the downward possibility as higher.

Rebound hit, but upside is getting heavy

USD/JPY rebounded solidly from the upper 160s to the low 162s.
My previous expectation that it would rebound was correct.

However, the next part is the problem.

Though it has returned to the 162s, the upside is getting heavy.
Not forming a rapid breakout upward.
Honestly, I do not get a clean image of climbing to the next higher previous high.

The rebound momentum has likely run its course soon.
That’s how I see it.

From here, I am watching the downside

To be honest.
I think the USD/JPY is likely to move down from here.

It did rebound, but that is largely the effect of “too much of a drop”.
If that rebound fades, the original heaviness will reappear.

Even considering the larger trend, it is hard to imagine it rising indefinitely from here.
Therefore, I see the rebound high as a selling point on the way back.

Of course, it does not necessarily plunge suddenly.
But entering a phase of “watching the downside” rather than “pursuing the upside” is my current view.

If you are long USD/JPY, it would be wise to be aware of this.

Gold is on an upbeat view due to inverse correlation

And then there is Gold.

Gold and USD/JPY tend to move inversely now.

If USD/JPY heads lower from here—
Gold is supported underneath and viewed with an upside bias.

In fact, Gold is holding firm in the 4,150–4,180 level.
If USD/JPY starts to weaken, Gold will be bought more in this inverse correlation.

USD/JPY declines and Gold rises.
These two should be watched as a set.

Current strategy

If you are holding long-term, my basic stance is as follows.

・The USD/JPY rebound will run its course for now. Upside is heavy
・From here, watch the downside. Treat the high price range as the place to sell on a rebound
・If you are long USD/JPY, be cautious of a pullback
・Gold is in an upside bias due to inverse correlation. Confirm the bottoming
・If the direction is not clear, do not force a position

Rather than chasing a high, riding the rebound momentum,
wait for the rotation to confirm and then follow the next direction.
This is my current stance.

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