NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: July 4, 2026 06:05 JST / Night Session

Current price: 69,680 yen

Target: For the intraday session (Mon 7/6)

Conclusion

The night session ranges and consolidates between 69,550 and 70,040, ending the week at 69,680. The rebound from Thursday morning’s 67,630 paused at 70,040 (4H reversal). The 4H and 1H frames show hesitation and a downward wave awaiting a resolution; the 15m shows a downtrend with a minor pullback within a range. Throughout Monday, we expect a hold in the range (69,550–70,040) with a watchful stance for which side it will break. Given the remaining upper downward wave, the upside retracement targets (70,850–71,090 and 72,110) remain heavy.

Close above 70,040 triggers a range breakout and a 4H rising regression follow-through long (70,490 → 70,850). Buy the dips at 69,690–69,550 and 68,990–68,770. If the retracement stalls at 69,970–70,040 or 70,850–71,090, consider selling into the rally. If 69,550 closes below on a 15m basis, range breakout to the downside and renewed decline (→ 68,990–68,770), with a break under 67,630 accelerating the drop.

4H Analysis

4H shows a range-bound decline wave. Reversal at 70,040; no rise in support yet; return high at 72,720. After descending from 73,760 → 72,720 → 72,110, price found support at 67,630 and rebounded to 70,040, reaching 69,680. Price has recovered above the 120EMA (roughly the daily 20EMA around 68,900) and sits above the 4H20EMA near the 200EMA (~67,600). The trend signal is a range-bound consolidation with a bias toward downside to be resolved.

If price closes above 70,040 (conversion), the 4H downtrend would revert to an uptrend, testing 70,850–71,090 and 72,110. Conversely, a break below 69,550 or 68,770 would invalidate the rebound and push toward 67,630 (origin). A close below 67,630 would accelerate the decline toward 67,000 and 66,000.

1H Analysis

1H shows a range-bound consolidation on a range-bound and downward wave. Reversal at 69,970; support at 67,630; 69,900 as a higher price after breakout (closing above). After rebounding from 67,630 to 70,040, it pulled back to 69,550 and is hovering around 69,680. The 20EMA is turning up and price sits above it; price is above the 320EMA (roughly 69,300 region).

If 69,970–70,040 closes above, the rebound continues toward 70,490 and 70,850. If 69,550 closes below on a 1H basis, the rebound completes and downside resumes, with 68,990 and 68,770 in view. The line above 69,900 may serve as a support-turned-resistance point to monitor.

15m Analysis

15m shows a downward/declining wave. Reversal at 69,760; lower high 69,970; support at 69,690 (broken). After pushing from 70,040 to 69,550, it attempts 69,880–69,970, then drifts to 69,680, staying within the 69,550–70,040 range. The 20EMA is flat; the 320EMA (4H20EMA equivalent) sits above near 69,300.

A close above 69,970–70,040 on a 15m basis would pause the short-term downtrend and push higher toward 70,040 breakout, or above to break the range. A break below 69,550 would break the range to the downside and resume the decline. Do not take positions in the middle of the range; wait for a clear close on either side.

Verification of Previous Trade Idea

Subject: Night Session

• ① Break-following (Long): Triggered in the intraday session (break above 68,840); price recovered to 69,830; T1 at 69,730 / T2 at 69,900 reached (intraday high 70,040). Night session ranges 69,550–70,040 with no new conditions; manage for take-profit and maximal favorable excursion (MFE).
• ② Buy on dip (Long): Not yet formed. Night low at 69,550 did not reach the dip zone (67,700–67,630 / 67,000).
• ③ Sell on rally (Short): Partially formed. A pullback to 69,730–69,900 stalled and yielded a drop 70,040 → 69,550; there was a preceding opportunity (peak actually 70,040 equals upper end of Zone 2 + 140). However, 67,700 or 67,630 failed to reach, remaining in-range.
• ④ Break-following (Short): Not formed. Night low 69,550 failed to reach 67,630.

MTF State

• 4H: Range-late / downwave. Conversion at 70,040; no prior support formation; reverse high 72,720. Rebounded from 67,630 to 70,040, then 69,680. Recovered above 120EMA (around daily 20EMA) and above 4H20EMA; trend shows as a range with a downside resolution pending.
• 1H: Range-late / downwave. Conversion 69,970; support 67,630; reverse high 69,900 (X already broken). After rebound 67,630 → 70,040, pulled back to 69,680. 20EMA turning up.
• 15m: Downward / downwave. Conversion 69,760; support 69,690 (broken) and pull high 69,970. Still within 69,550–70,040 range. 320EMA above 4H20EMA near 69,300.
• Consistency: 4H and 1H show range-bound unsettled waves; 15m shows a downward wave maintaining range. Since the upper downward wave remains, consider a bias toward selling on rallies, but also note the rebound power from 67,630 (120EMA recovery) and the breakout above 69,900. Keep four-timeframe indicators aligned while range-bound.

Important Prices

• 72,720 yen: 4H retracement high. Upper bound of 4H downwave.
• 72,110 yen: Recent higher high (July 1). A break above suggests a breakdown of the down-structure.
• 71,090 yen: Old retracement high. Upper bound of Downside Zone 3?
• 70,850 yen: Old nodes. Lower bound of Zone 3 and T2 for the first break.
• 70,490 yen: Old node (July 1 dip region). T1 and T2 for entries.
• 70,040 yen: Recent high / 4H conversion price. Trigger for Break-following long, upper bound of Zone 1, and range cap.
• 69,970 yen: 1H conversion / 15m retracement high. Lower bound of Zone 1.
• 69,900 yen: 1H old retracement high (support-turned potential with close above).
• 69,760 yen: 15m conversion price.
• 69,690 yen: 15m support (broken → node). Upper bound of Zone 1.
• 69,680 yen: Current price / night close.
• 69,550 yen: Recent dip / range lower bound. Lower bound of Zone 1 / Zone 3 nodes / trigger.
• 68,990 yen: Rebound intermediate node. Zone 2 upper bound of ③/④T1 and Zone 2 upper.
• 68,770 yen: Rebound intermediate pullback low. Zone 2 lower bound / ④ recovery.
• 68,480 yen: Node. Zone 2 complete exit / ④ T2.
• 67,630 yen: Most recent low / starting point of rebound. Break below accelerates the decline.
• 62,350 yen: 4H / daily structure low. The most important downside.

Trade Ideas

① Break-following (Long)

• Trigger: Break above 70,040 (latest high / 4H conversion) on a 15m close (range breakout / 4H downwave regression to upside).
• Leading: After the breakout, a pullback toward the breakout price vicinity or toward the slightly inclined 20MA on small timeframes (1m, 5m) to time the wave turn (back-entry, breakout price-based).
• Entry: 70,040 recovered on 1H close.
• Stop / invalidation: 69,640 break for the leading leg; 69,550 break for the main leg.
• Target: 70,490 (partial take + base), 70,850 (if surpassed then 71,090 and 72,110).
• RR: T1 70,490 = 1.1 / T2 70,850 = 2.0. Since T1 sits near 1.1, focus on the main leg.
• Note: 4H and 1H downwaves remain as resistance in the retracement at around 70,490 and 70,850–71,090–72,110. Avoid chasing highs; protect early.
• MFE protection: exit at +200 with base or small profit, or +300 for at least +100 or trailing.

② Buy on Dip (Long)

• Standard: shallow dip Zone 1 at 69,690–69,550 (15m support low to range lower bound) or deep dip Zone 2 at 68,990–68,770 (rebound from 67,630). Confirm on 15m close.
• Leading: shallow dip targets around 69,620 (LC 69,300); deep dip around 68,850 (LC 68,600). Since the upper downside wave remains, limit to clear rebounds at support near 69,550 or 68,770, confirming around 20MA for upside or flat conditions.
• Entry: 70,040 recovered on 1H close.
• Stop / invalidation: Leading leg break 69,300 (deep dip); main leg break 68,770; complete exit 68,480 if 69,550 clearly breaks (then switch to ④).
• Target: 70,040 (partial take + base), 70,490.
• RR: T1 70,040 = 1.3 / T2 70,490 = 2.7.
• MFE protection: exit at +200 for cost basis or small profit, +300 for minimum +100 or trailing. Since inside a range, protect early.

③ Sell on Rally (Short)

• Standard: Retracement zone 1 at 69,970–70,040 (1H conversion highest = range top) stalls on 15m close. In deeper retracements, zone 2 is 70,850–71,090 (old highs).
• Leading: Wait for stall confirmation on 15m close (target around 70,000). Downside wave remains in 4H and 1H; sell on trend-following retracement.
• Entry: Break 69,550 on 1H close (range break = downtrend resumes).
• Stop / invalidation: Leading 70,290 recovery; main 70,040 recovery. Strong invalidation at 70,850 if 1H close above and zone 2 shifts; ① dominance.
• Target: 68,990 (partial take + base), 68,770 / 68,480.
• RR: T1 68,990 = 3.5 / T2 68,770 = 4.2.
• MFE protection: exit at +200 for base or small profit, +300 for at least +100 or trailing. Do not chase inside the range; protect early. Avoid early entry above 20MA; if T1 has been reached by the trigger, consider passing.

④ Break-following (Short)

• Trigger: Break below 69,550 (nearest dip / range bottom) on 15m close (range breakout / downtrend resumes).
• Leading: After break, pullback toward breakout price vicinity or toward the inclined 20MA on small timeframes to time the wave turn (back-entry, breakout price basis).
• Entry: Break 68,770 (pullback low) on 1H close (rebound negated = downtrend continues).
• Stop / invalidation: Leading 69,880 recovery; main 69,970 recovery. Full exit 70,040.
• Target: 68,990 (partial take + base), 68,480 / 67,630.
• RR: T1 68,990 = 1.7 / T2 68,480 = 3.2.
• Note: Supports at 68,990, 68,770, 68,480, 67,630 provide stage-wise resistance; watch for quick reversals and deceiving moves, confirm with a clear close below to trigger. Break below 67,630 accelerates to 67,000–66,000.
• MFE protection: exit at +200 for base or small profit, +300 for at least +100 or trailing. Since range-bound, avoid overreaching. Do not enter early above 20MA; if T1 is already reached at the trigger, pass.

Current Actions

• Most important Line 1: 70,040 (recent high / 4H conversion = range top). Break above on 15m close to initiate a range breakout long (70,490 → 70,850). If stalls near 69,970–70,040, consider selling into the rally.
• Most important Line 2: 69,550 (recent dip / range bottom). Maintain support at 69,690–69,550 and look for a rebound as a dip buy. If 15m close breaks below, downside resumes toward 68,990–68,770, with a caution for a break under 67,630 accelerating declines.
• Market state: 4H and 1H are waiting for the downwave to resolve; price trades within 69,550–70,040 waiting for a directional breakout. Given upper downward wave remains, upside targets (70,850–71,090 and 72,110) are heavy; price needs retracement trades and sell on a break of the range lower. Be mindful of weekend gaps and avoid overextending in either direction.

Entry prices, triggers, and stops are set based on the chart structure at the time of the close (conversion prices, pullback lows, and retracement highs for each timeframe). If the structure changes with time, unless a higher-timeframe structure changes, adjust entry prices using the price-turning points of lower timeframes (e.g., a short-term 15m turning price after a downwave) to better match actual conditions and adopt the option that aligns with reality.

※ Be mindful of Monday’s gap at the open. If conditions exceed the opening price significantly, Break-following may be treated as “partial and gap-through,” and dip-buying as not formed if zone targets are not reached.

※ This report is for information purposes and does not constitute trading advice. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.