【Path to Dream_FX_Main Currency_Rate Environment Recognition & Memo_20260705】

【Dream toward the FX_Major currencies_Market environment recognition and memorandum_20260705】


July 5th, Sunday.

Hello.

It is raining in the South Kanto area.
It seems to be raining heavily after a long time.

Today, I will become a “cave-dweller”
and spend a relaxed day.

From looking at the stagnant charts
it seems the USD is likely to rise.

In the early part of the week, an ascent in Oceania is possible
where the candlestick will form is
the decline of EUR/USD will trigger
GBP/USD to follow,
and perhaps Oceania will also form a candlestick.
I think so.

In any case, the cross yen is likely to be bearish.




Now, let's confirm.
This is the number of bars at the closing timing of the daily chart.
　　

【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 19th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle 17th bar / 6LT
Weekly volatility: 111 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle 8th bar / 7
4HC: 1st cycle 45th bar / 37

I am interpreting it as such.

Medium to long term, the view that the USD will be strong is growing, but
until CPI on April 14, the USD is expected to rise.

After that, if the USD strength is proven,
USD buying may be further encouraged.

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20260705_FX_Market environment_Video commentary
https://youtu.be/Xn-D9oAEQBg
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 23rd
Weekly: 3rd cycle 23rd / 23 or
Weekly: 4th cycle 9th bar / 9
Weekly volatility: 237 pips
HPC 2nd or HPC 1st: 43rd bar / 41
4HC: 4th cycle 4th bar / 4

I am interpreting it as such.

Fundamentally, the top timeframe shows a bearish yen trend.


Since this currency pair has a high likelihood of intervention,
watchful waiting is appropriate, but
if a big move comes in one shot,
it might then stagnate afterwards.

Can we wait until CPI?
That will be the key.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 19th / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle 14th / 5LT
Weekly volatility: 196 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle 8th / 7
4HC: 1st cycle 45th / 38

I am interpreting it as such.

The UK situation is involved, but temporarily it is rising.
However, the likelihood of USD strengthening is high,

and the day-count for the HPC may break on the daily chart early,

which could indicate a break downward.



【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 24th / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle 21st / 10
Weekly volatility: 211 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle 43rd / 30
4HC: 4th cycle 45th / 26

I am interpreting it as such.

Since a head-and-shoulders pattern is forming on the daily chart,
a bearish outlook is strong.

The cause will be whether EUR/USD declines
or USD/JPY declines
but
both decline,
and if dollar strengthens and yen strengthens,
EUR/JPY would show a rush of bearish candles.

The trigger is unclear,
but any intervention would make trading difficult.



【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 24th / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle 20th / 11
Weekly volatility: 267 pips
HPC: 2nd 47th / 46 or
Daily: 3rd cycle 11th / 10
4HC: 1st or 4th cycle 65th / 55

I am interpreting it as such.

With the rise in GBP/USD,
GBP/JPY is also rising.

Under the influence of USD/JPY,
yen appreciation after the employment data occurred,
but encountering USD weakness in GBP/USD
gives a stronger impression of intervention.

In the future, if the 4HC closes with a candlestick
the first half of this week may be down?




【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 16th / 15
Weekly: 3rd cycle 20th / 16
Weekly volatility: 147 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle 47th / 24LT
4HC: 4th cycle 5th / 3

I am interpreting it as such.

It is viewed as a lagging currency.
AUD/USD will follow EUR/USD, so
AUD/JPY will show a similar pattern.

Until now, because interest rates have been high in Australia,
rising made sense, but
when US stocks decline,
AUD/USD declines.

Subsequently, AUD selling may accelerate
and the currency could become the weakest,
so I am considering a bearish stance.

****************************
20260705_FX_Market environment_Video commentary
https://youtu.be/Xn-D9oAEQBg
*****************************

  
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DXY 100.878 +0.03%
US10Y 4.485 +0.04％
DJI 52905 points +595
US500 +0.46%
WTI 68.695 dollars
BRN 72.12 dollars
Nikkei 225 69,743 yen +1,010


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