【Method Explanation ⑥】 What can be predicted with logic is the direction a few hours ahead?? The direction a few minutes ahead??

【Explanation of Method ⑥】What can be predicted with logic: the direction a few hours later?? the direction a few minutes later?

Predict the direction a few hours later. Predict the direction a few minutes later.

Which is harder?

●What will it be like in a few minutes?

In short, this one is advantageous

The time you can be confident in your edge is at most a few minutes
Conversely, if a few minutes, it’s easier to identify an edge and a trading direction with momentum

What will it be like a few hours later?
Will it rise in 2–3 minutes?

If you use the current “momentum,” will it rise in 2–3 minutes?
Judged by indicators

Looking at the current “momentum” is something only possible with a 1-minute chart


・What can be predicted is the direction a few minutes later
・With a 1-minute chart, determine momentum

I learned this from my master, and it was a revelation

The master’s technique forms the core of my own logic


●What will it be like a few hours later?

This is far too difficult

There are methods to view direction with chart patterns, line trading, Elliott waves, etc., but
judgment is really difficult


■ Many people who trade for a living are scalpers

Among FX traders who are successful, the share of trading styles is hard to determine, but in practice, I think scalping is common
(Stock investing is another story)

The reason is as above
The time you can be confident in your edge is at most a few minutes

Also, a certain securities company official stated in a magazine interview

That firm said
“The traders who actually make money are overwhelmingly scalpers”


Let me explain a little more


■ Predicting a few hours ahead is in the realm of genius

To analyze hours-ahead movements, you need Dow theory, Elliott waves, chart patterns, or even fundamental trends
These analyses have many decision factors that are complex and interpretations vary among people

There are people who make money by following the trend and properly cutting losses, but… it’s probably in the realm of genius

Also, the number of trades tends to be quite small
Trends or Elliott waves give only hours-level analysis, and
if you want to trade according to that, how many trades would you place?
Even accumulating practice takes a long time

■ Movement a few minutes later

The material to analyze is “momentum”
Regardless of chart patterns or medium-or-long-term trends,
even in a 15-minute chart that is in a range,
momentum can cause rapid moves, which you can frequently see on a 1-minute chart

There are short pips, but there are times when the “momentum” makes it easier to judge a move
“Momentum” appears several times a day (though there are rare days when it doesn’t)

The logic can be to use indicators to identify where momentum exists

Also, since momentum in minutes can occur several times a day,
the number of trades increases,

you can validate the logic daily,
even looking at a week’s worth of charts provides substantial validation

■ In validation too, it’s determined by indicators, so you can’t lie

Unlike complex chart analyses whose interpretations vary by person,
the entry points are only where momentum is present
There is no element of unique chart interpretation

Will it rise a few hours later?
Will it rise in 2–3 minutes?

Do you think the latter is easier to understand?


By the way, as a side note,

When adding explanations after the chart, chart patterns and Dow-theory style trading methods
are often explained in a plausible way

It’s quite easy to interpret conveniently, showing only the good parts
and depending on interpretation, explanations can be made

So, is explaining a few minutes of momentum difficult?

Momentum a few minutes later occurs many times,
if the logic is false, it will be exposed quickly,
and conversely, if you can properly judge momentum
a little testing will reveal it

Past validation isn’t vague like chart patterns or line trading,
but clearly answers can be produced by indicator logic

This is also a very important point



The method I am currently practicing is here
【Steadily +10 pips per day】
Learned from a pro trader, and it helped me escape the losing group: a 1-minute FX method (2–5 hours a day)
Explained with smartphone chart images
【Entry points】【Exit points】are easy to understand with this logic

■ Thinking of overseas pro traders (the legendary investors Buffett and Soros)
Not “to win,” but to “make money” with trading methods
Trade only at places with high potential, not by “win rate” but by “probability of rise”
↓
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/76385


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Just this is enough to win!
Explanation using currency strength to trade (with indicators)
Chart monitoring and trading logic

Coconala is here
https://coconala.com/services/4222861
Note is here
https://note.com/touji_fuc/n/n9874f0333d09