[Weekly Dollar-Yen Outlook] The 162 Yen Barrier and the Tug-of-War to Watch Between the Government and the Bank of Japan

Highlights

✅ Defensive and offensive at 162 yen: Last week, after rising to 162.84 yen, it quickly fell to the 160s. 162 yen is regarded as the authorities' "defensive line," so watch for large players' movements.

✅ The fate of additional Bank of Japan rate hikes: The government has hinted at a restraint on the BOJ in the "strong policy" framework. This supports yen weakness.

✅ U.S. important data: July 7 trade balance (watch its impact on GDP), July 8 FOMC minutes (clues about September rate hike).

✅ Geopolitical risk: Progress in U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks and accompanying movements in crude oil prices will influence the overall market.

Summary: This week's stance

With the risk of authorities intervening near 162 yen overlapping with the release of key U.S. indicators, be prepared for sudden changes from headlines. Avoid easy follow-on buying and first assess the reaction to each event.