[Method Explanation ④] Look for the probability of rising rather than the "win rate" for those with "expected value

【Method Explanation ④】 Seek the probability of rising, not the win rate, for those with the expected value

Legendarily famous investors Warren Buffett and George Soros share a common mindset like this

“Target only where the expected value is high, and repeat the same thing calmly.”

“Do not touch difficult markets.”

It sounds simple in words, but many traders cannot do this

Because many people think of “expected value” as the same as “win rate.”


Is the win rate really what’s most important?

In the world of professional traders, there is a saying like this

“When you enter a trade, you want to enter at a place where you first see unrealized profits.”

This is especially important in scalping

Ideally, the market should move in the direction of your expectation from the moment you enter

On the other hand, trades that immediately incur a large unrealized loss after entry are mentally painful

So, how do you find such points?

Here, many people chase the “win rate.”

But there is actually a trap there

Win rate alone cannot reveal the essence

For example, suppose a position that carried a loss for a long time ends up a little positive at the close

If you look only at the result, it’s a “win.”

However,
It does not align with the idea of “aim to enter at a place where profits come immediately.”

Conversely, if you enter and immediately see unrealized profits but later get reversed and cut, what happens?



If you look only at the result, it’s a “loss.”

However, from a logical standpoint it may have functioned as intended


In other words,

Even if you only look at win rate, you cannot tell whether the method truly has an edge

that is the point

What you should aim for is a place with a high probability of rising

What my method emphasizes is

“the probability that you will see unrealized profits at least once after entry.”

Yes

Of course, it is not 100%

But,

the likelihood of a rise is high
momentum tends to develop
it is likely to move in the profit direction at least once

That is the kind of place we target

In other words,

We search for the “probability of movement,” not the “probability of winning.”

What the method aims for is “momentum.”

The core idea of my method is simple



To capture momentum

Entry points where momentum tends to occur after entry, and take a portion of that move

For exit,

Take profit if it moves in your favor
If suspicious, exit
If not, cut losses

This is the way of thinking

Especially important is the part “if suspicious, flee.”

Sometimes you close at break-even or small profit or small loss

From the win-rate perspective,

Small profit = win
Small loss = loss

is the opposite

However, from a logic standpoint, both mean

“I exited because momentum was weak.”

which carries the same meaning

That’s why win rate alone cannot judge the essence

Indicator does not teach win rate

Now, let’s also think about indicators

Indicators such as MACD and moving averages

do not directly tell you a number like

“70% win rate.”

However,

they tell you when conditions are likely to rise
likely to fall
momentum is likely to develop

In other words,


you win not by using indicators to win, but by using indicators to win
as a concept

View the chart like a map

When this pattern forms, it tends to stretch

This combination tends to develop momentum

By accumulating such information, you search for points with advantage


A mindset that makes “1 day + 10 pips” realistic

Both my mentor’s method and the method I use

are based on the idea of aiming for places where the chance of further movement is high

Therefore,

instead of “winning big in one shot,”

it becomes easier to approach a realistic goal of “1 day + 10 pips.”







The market does not always present a clear trend

There are markets like ranges that are difficult

Even so, with scalping, you can capture momentary momentum and accumulate small gains




Summary

Many traders worry only about win rate

But what’s truly important is

“Is this place likely to rise?”
“Is this place likely to have momentum?”

This is the perspective you should adopt

Win rate is a result

On the other hand, a high-expected-value trade is about

finding a place where the market moves easily and repeatedly utilizing that edge

That is exactly what legendary traders have valued



The method I currently practice is here
【Steadily +10 pips per day】
A one-minute FX method taught by a pro trader, from which I escaped the losing group (2–5 hours a day)
Explained with smartphone chart images
Clear logic for entry points and exit points

■ Thinking of overseas pro traders (legendary investors Buffett and Soros)
A trading method not to “win,” but to “make money”
Trade solely on high-probability rising points, not on win rate

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https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/76385


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