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とこやさん
07/04/2026 10:52
Release： 07/04/2026 10:52
Update： 07/05/2026 08:01
とこやさん
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 1 million - 5 million JPY
FX has 15 years of history. Focusing on discretionary trading, I trade with emphasis on market structure and order flow bias. Trading style: I strictly pursue trend-following pullbacks and selloffs (occasionally aiming for breakouts). Based on higher-timeframe momentum, I check for expanding/contracting volatility and price ranges where orders tend to accumulate, and I target only when I can judge that risk-reward is favorable. Rather than "scenes that look like I might win," the基本 principle is to prioritize "not touching markets that are likely to lose." On days when conditions are not aligned, it is not uncommon to skip entries. As I continue discretionary trading, I feel the challenge of explaining clearly why my judgments were correct or why they were wrong in certain situations, and I began developing EA and indicators to verify and organize trading decisions. In the early development, I defined entry conditions in detail and built logic to increase signals, but past backtests looked favorable while in real markets there were many cases where expected value collapsed in certain market environments. From that experience, I became strongly aware that many losses are caused not by entry conditions themselves but by misperceptions of the market environment. Currently, I prioritize判断ing whether the market is one worth trading now and where distortions will appear if pushed too far, treating the market as a phase (environment). What I want to provide users through EA and indicators is not flashy logic or mechanisms that attract attention temporarily, but realistic decision criteria for continually facing the market and the know-how behind them. Markets are always changing. Therefore, I do not believe in delivering a finished tool unilaterally as the end product. Reviews and opinions from users who actually use it are extremely important not only as a developer but also as a trader. Based on such feedback, I aim to improve continuously, refining both the tool and the trading environment to create a win-win relationship that benefits both users and creators. What I personally aim for is not something flashy and easy to understand that cannot be sustained, but "trading that can be steadily built up under realistic risk management." Rather than short-term results, I want to be able to face the market continually and keep trades I can be satisfied with in judgment. I hope to refine the mindset and tools for that purpose together with you, the users.
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[To those who missed the GOLD surge] July 1–3 price movement and profit points that could have been targeted with support/resistance turn

1. The 3 days GOLD surged all at once


Chick
GOLD moved quite a bit from July 1 to 3, didn’t it?
People watching might have thought, "Huh, it already rose that much?"

Rena

Yes, that’s right.
This time GOLD showed a strong rebound in a short period.

In late June, GOLD faced a heavy upper level due to expectations of U.S. rate hikes and a strong dollar.

However, once July began, the trend changed.
Buybacks entered GOLD that had been sold, and it rose sharply from July 1 to 3.

According to Reuters, on July 3 GOLD headed for weekly gains amid weak U.S. employment data, with spot gold briefly at the mid-4,176-dollar range and U.S. gold futures around the 4,188-dollar range.

Chick
The trend suddenly changed, didn’t it?
But why was it bought so much?

Rena
This rise wasn’t just a coincidence.
There was a trigger that changed market views.

2. The trigger for the rapid rebound was the U.S. employment data

Chick
Was the trigger, after all, the U.S. employment data?

Rena
Yes.
The big trigger was the U.S. employment data released on July 2.

June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, well below market expectations of 110,000. Additionally, May figures were revised down from 172,000 to 129,000.

Chick
If employment is weak, does GOLD tend to benefit?

Rena
In such a scenario, yes.

Weak employment data
→ It becomes harder for the Fed to raise rates soon
→ Expectation for U.S. rate hikes eases
→ The dollar tends to weaken
→ Gold denominated in dollars tends to be bought

This is the flow.

In fact, after the weak employment data, July rate-hike probability was reported to have fallen below 20%.
Also, a weaker dollar helped GOLD, and Reuters noted that the dollar’s largest weekly drop since April was another factor boosting GOLD.

Chick
I see.
In other words, behind GOLD’s sudden buying were employment data, expectations for rate hikes, and a weaker dollar.


3. But could it have been captured without knowing the background?

Chick
But, you know, not everyone can follow all real-time news about employment data and the Fed.
For people like that, could they have captured this move?

Rena
No.
This is the point we want to convey most in this article.

Of course, understanding the market background helps with judgment.However, even if you don’t grasp all the background, there were buying signals on the chart.

Chick
Buying signals on the chart?

(The rest is available to read for free.)