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とこやさん
07/04/2026 10:52
Release： 07/04/2026 10:52
Update： 07/04/2026 10:52
とこやさん
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 1 million - 5 million JPY
FX has 15 years of history. Focusing on discretionary trading, I trade with emphasis on market structure and order flow bias. Trading style: I strictly pursue trend-following pullbacks and selloffs (occasionally aiming for breakouts). Based on higher-timeframe momentum, I check for expanding/contracting volatility and price ranges where orders tend to accumulate, and I target only when I can judge that risk-reward is favorable. Rather than "scenes that look like I might win," the基本 principle is to prioritize "not touching markets that are likely to lose." On days when conditions are not aligned, it is not uncommon to skip entries. As I continue discretionary trading, I feel the challenge of explaining clearly why my judgments were correct or why they were wrong in certain situations, and I began developing EA and indicators to verify and organize trading decisions. In the early development, I defined entry conditions in detail and built logic to increase signals, but past backtests looked favorable while in real markets there were many cases where expected value collapsed in certain market environments. From that experience, I became strongly aware that many losses are caused not by entry conditions themselves but by misperceptions of the market environment. Currently, I prioritize判断ing whether the market is one worth trading now and where distortions will appear if pushed too far, treating the market as a phase (environment). What I want to provide users through EA and indicators is not flashy logic or mechanisms that attract attention temporarily, but realistic decision criteria for continually facing the market and the know-how behind them. Markets are always changing. Therefore, I do not believe in delivering a finished tool unilaterally as the end product. Reviews and opinions from users who actually use it are extremely important not only as a developer but also as a trader. Based on such feedback, I aim to improve continuously, refining both the tool and the trading environment to create a win-win relationship that benefits both users and creators. What I personally aim for is not something flashy and easy to understand that cannot be sustained, but "trading that can be steadily built up under realistic risk management." Rather than short-term results, I want to be able to face the market continually and keep trades I can be satisfied with in judgment. I hope to refine the mindset and tools for that purpose together with you, the users.
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[To those who missed the GOLD surge] July 1–3 price movement and profit points that could have been targeted with support/resistance turn

1. The 3 Days GOLD surged in a single blast


Chick
GOLD moved quite a bit from July 1 to 3, didn’t it?
Those watching might have thought, “Huh, has it risen that much already?”

Reina

That's right.
This time GOLD rebounded significantly in a short period.

Until late June, GOLD faced heavy upside pressure due to expectations of U.S. rate hikes and a strong dollar.

However, once July began, the flow changed.
Buying returned to GOLD that had been sold, and it rose sharply from July 1 to 3.

According to Reuters, on July 3 GOLD was set for weekly gains on the back of weak U.S. payrolls, with spot gold briefly above $4,176 and U.S. futures around $4,188.

Chick
The pace suddenly shifted, didn’t it?
But why was it bought so much?

Reina
This rise was not just a coincidence.
There was a trigger that changed market views.

2. The trigger for the quick rebound was the U.S. employment data

Chick
Was the trigger the U.S. employment data after all?

Reina
Yes.
The big trigger was the U.S. jobs report released on July 2.

Nonfarm payrolls for June rose by 57,000, far below market expectations of 110,000. Moreover, May’s figure was revised down from 172,000 to 129,000.

Chick
When employment is weak, GOLD tends to benefit more?

Reina
In such a situation, yes.

Weak employment data
→ It becomes harder for the Fed to hike rates soon
→ Market expectations for U.S. rate hikes ease
→ The dollar tends to weaken
→ Gold priced in dollars becomes more attractive to buy

This is the flow.

In fact, in response to weak employment data, July rate-hike odds were reported to have fallen below 20%.
Additionally, a weaker dollar was supportive for GOLD, and Reuters noted that the dollar’s largest weekly drop since April was another factor behind GOLD’s rise.

Chick
I see.
So, behind GOLD’s sudden buying were employment data, rate-hike expectations, and a weaker dollar.


3. But could you have taken the move without knowing the context?

Chick
But not everyone can track the entire real-time story of employment data and the Fed, right?
So, did people like that miss this move?

Reina
No.
This is the main point I want to convey in this article.

Of course, understanding the market backdrop helps with judgment.
However, even if you didn’t grasp all the background, there were buy signals on the chart.

Chick
Buy signals on the chart?

(Continue reading for free!)