【Gold】First target reached｜In truth, I was still looking higher. But, we changed the plan

First, a reflection.

In the previous article, I wrote that I would target a rebound in gold. The first target is 4,175, and the second is 4,345.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/119662

As a result, gold rebounded to around 4,180 and reached the first target of 4,175. It moved as I had anticipated.

To be honest. Really, I expected it to go higher from here—up to the second target of 4,345.

But the situation changed. So, I am changing the plan.

What changed: the dollar-yen seems set for a sharp rebound

Since I wrote the previous forecast, something has changed.

The dollar-yen.

The dollar-yen, which had been range-bound, now appears to be taking on a shape that suggests a significant rebound. This is the main reason that has changed my view.

As I wrote last time, gold and the dollar-yen tend to move in inverse correlation now.

If the dollar-yen makes a strong rebound (rises) — on the other hand, gold is likely to face downward pressure.

I had been thinking “gold will still go up,” but after seeing this dollar-yen move, that premise may break down.

Therefore, I am postponing the second target for now

The market is alive. Clinging to the first forecast is the riskiest thing.

At the previous point, I saw room for gold to extend to the second target 4,345. But now there is a new factor: the rebound in the dollar-yen.

So, I will temporarily set aside the greed for the second target. Once the first target of 4,175 is reached, I will prioritize taking profits.

Rather than continuing to hold thinking “it will still rise,” I will honestly revise the plan when the situation changes. This is the iron rule to survive in contrarian trading.

Gold from here: beware of a return to the downside

In the first place, the big trend for gold is still downward. This rebound is simply a return within a downtrend.

If the rebound in the dollar-yen coincides with this, there is a substantial possibility that this rebound in gold completes its cycle and returns to a downtrend.

Now that the first target has been achieved, I have switched to a mode of watching for a return downward rather than chasing higher prices.

Current strategy

If held for a long time, my basic stance is as follows.

・Gold has reached the first target. For contrarian longs, prioritize taking profits
・The intended second target 4,345 is temporarily postponed due to changes in the situation
・Be wary of a sharp rebound in the dollar-yen. Inverse correlation applies downward pressure on gold
・From here, be vigilant for a return to a downtrend in gold
・When the direction is not clear, do not force a position

Plans can be changed if the situation changes. In fact, the ability to change is a sign of strength.

【GOLD Complete Domination Set】

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/80024?via=users_products