★Explosive Power = Dangerous? What we learned after a year of investigation★
Explosive Martingale Operation
Know the enemy to drastically reduce risk!
The greatest enemy of Martingale is “a losing streak”
What matters most in Martingale is not simply the win rate.
The real points to look at arethe number of consecutive losses that the logic allowsto occur.
Because in Martingale operation, the more consecutive losses there are, the more the lot size increases, and the required margin and unrealized loss risk become larger. In other words, checking the loss-streak count is extremely important for assessing the risk of a Martingale EA.
If you operate without knowing this, …
Loss distribution confirmed by about one year of testing
```In this backtest, we counted the number of consecutive losses and checked how frequently consecutive losses occurred.
| Consecutive losses | Occurrences | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 loss | 195 times | 51.46% |
| 2 losses | 98 times | 25.86% |
| 3 losses | 54 times | 14.25% |
| 4 losses | 23 times | 6.07% |
| 5 losses | 5 times | 1.32% |
| 6 losses | 4 times | 1.06% |
| 7 losses | 0 times | 0.00% |
| 8 losses | 1 time | 0.26% |
Loss distribution graph
```※ To improve visibility, the minimum bar width is displayed with a minimum width.
```Key points
```Occurrences of 5 or more losses total onlyabout 2.64%
8 consecutive losses in annual testing wereonly once
We disclose how often the most concerning loss-streak scenarios occur in Martingale operation.
```Why this data is strong evidence
```In Martingale EA, looking at win rate alone does not reveal true risk. Even with a high win rate, frequent extreme losses place a heavy burden on capital.
Therefore, in this EA, we verify not only profits but alsohow often loss streaks occur.
In about one year of testing, a maximum of 8 consecutive losses were recorded, yet testing continued with the same settings until the end.
This is a very important verification point in Martingale operation. It’s not just about short-term profits, but testing across roughly one year of market conditions including loss streaks.
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This loss-distribution is based on past backtesting results and does not guarantee the same loss counts in future markets.
However, exposing not only profits but also loss risks is considered important for operational decisions when evaluating Martingale EA.
```Martingale cannot be operated long-term.
Verified with the above results
No curve fitting.
No parameter changes.
Approximately one year of backtesting completed with the same settings.
The most important message this time
Martingale EA tends to deliver large profits in the short term, but over a long period, it can deteriorate significantly in some cases.
Therefore, what matters is not short-term gains butwhether you can operate with the same settings as market conditions change.
In this testing, we completed approximately one year of backtesting without changing settings.
What this test did not cover
```Optimization to fit past markets was not performed.
Testing was conducted for about one year with the same settings.
Parameters were not changed to force profits along the way.
This verifies the EA’s intrinsic performance.
About one year of backtest results
```| Item | Result |
|---|---|
| Testing period | June 2025 to June 2026 |
| Currency pair | XAUUSD |
| Starting capital | $1,000 |
| Final balance | $8,899.97 |
| Net profit | $7,899.97 |
| Capital growth | About 890% |
| Total trades | 1,476 |
| Win rate | 52.44% |
| Profit factor | 1.43 |
| Maximum drawdown | 46.70% |
The meaning of enduring Martingale for one year
Martingale operation is appealing for its recovery power and capital efficiency when you win. But over long periods, whether you can endure losses and market bias is crucial.
In this test, we completed about a year of backtesting without changing settings.
This is not simply a story of profit.
What is truly important in Martingale operation,whether it could be sustained with the same settings for the long term, is what this test aims to verify.
Why the win rate of 52.44% still accumulated profits
Seeing 52.44% as a number may not look impressive.
But the important thing is not the win rate alone.
Profit-loss balance, capital efficiency, and the ability to operate long-term.
In this test, about one year of trading with the same settings and 1,476 trades resulted infrom $1,000 to $8,899.97growth in capital.
Drawdown
Maximum drawdown was 46.70%. This is not a small figure.
However, showing only favorable numbers is meaningless. What matters is assessing both profit and risk to make informed judgments.
This test is intended to verify the EA’s intrinsic performance, so it does not employ certain money-management methods such as:
- Compounding
- Lot-up according to profit
- Lot-down during drawdown
- Capital management according to risk rate
These are results obtained under the same conditions for about one year.
In actual trading, you can tailor your own trading plan by adjusting lot sizes according to funds and acceptable risk.
The value of this test
It’s not merely that profits occurred.
Martingale operation.
No curve fitting.
No setting changes.
Completed testing for about one year with the same settings.
There is value in testing to the end under these conditions and building profits.
No optimization. No mid-course changes.
Approximately one year of backtesting with the same settings for Martingale EA.
$1,000 → $8,899.97
Results tested across not only short-term but also various market environments.
※ Actual results may vary due to market conditions, spreads, order execution environments, and trading settings.
※ Trading carries risk of loss. Please trade only with funds you can afford to risk.
