Gold price recovers to $4,000 but monthly drop over 11% as rate hike bets limit rebound

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Gold price (XAU/USD) briefly fell to$3,942before rebounding to$4,026.

Having recovered the psychological round level of $4,000, it still fell sharply from a high around $4,500 in June,showing a monthly decline of over 11%is expected.

Behind this are the stronger dollar and persistent expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

U.S.–Iran tensions ease but gold cannot rebound

The biggest factor behind the June plunge in gold was the possibility of military clashes between the U.S. and Iran.

Afterward, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding toward a ceasefire, and oil prices stabilized, but gold prices have not shown the rebound expected.

The market remains wary of additional rate hikes by major central banks, making it hard for safe-haven gold to attract buying.

Rate hike expectations support dollar strength

Views that the Fed will implement additional rate hikes have supported the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

The dollar index (DXY) rose to101.17.

Moreover, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to **4.412%**, posing a headwind for gold that yields no interest.

According to Prime Terminal, the market has priced inabout 0.35% of additional rate hikes through December 2026.

On the other hand, the July meeting is more likely to hold rates steady.

Employment data to be the next focus

The market is watching upcoming U.S. employment indicators.

First the ADP employment report, followed by the U.S. jobs report (NFP); depending on the results, the Fed's rate hike expectations could change significantly.

Also, the JOLTS job openings released that day came in at7,594,000versus expectations, signaling strength in the U.S. labor market.

Furthermore, the U.S. consumer confidence index has improved, reinforcing perceptions of economic resilience.

Gold price remains in a rebound phase but in a downtrend

Gold price recovered to the $4,000 level, but remains in adowntrend with lower highs and lower lows.

The RSI (relative strength index) has softened from oversold territory, suggesting short-term easing of selling pressure, but a full reversal has not occurred.

To shift to an upward trend, first$4,100must be clearly recaptured.

Then the following levels will serve as resistance indicators:

• $4,220

• $4,280–$4,300

• 50-day moving average (around $4,439)

On the other hand, if selling pressure strengthens again, the following become key supports:

• $3,941

• $3,900

• $3,886

• $3,500

These are important support levels to watch.

Summary

✅ Gold price has recovered to $4,000, but a steep decline of over 11% in June is expected

✅ Even after the U.S.–Iran ceasefire, rate hike expectations limit gold

✅ Dollar index at 101.17, U.S. 10-year yield at 4.412% rising

✅ Markets price in roughly 0.35% of additional rate hikes through December 2026

✅ Next focus on ADP employment data and U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Gold has recovered the psychological level of $4,000, but the overall market remains in a downtrend.

Going forward, U.S. economic indicators, including employment data, are likely to influence the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and the direction of gold prices.