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カタナ
06/30/2026 17:31
Release： 06/30/2026 17:31
Update： 06/30/2026 17:31
カタナ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
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NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory: 4 Scenario Analysis Report 2026-07-01 (for Daytime Session)

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: July 1, 2026 06:16 JST / Night Session

Current Value: 70,990 yen

Target: For the intraday session (7/1)

Conclusion

The night session pulled back to 70,050 and then continued higher, breaking above 70,850 to reach 71,390, and closed at 70,990. On the 4-hour chart, a down- then up-move (retracement) has raised the basing price to 69,480; price is testing the 4H 20EMA/20SMA band (71,150–72,090). On the 1H and 15m charts, the up move = retracement continues and the short-term buyers are dominant. During the intraday, while watching for retrace continuation, be mindful of the resistance weight above 71,450–72,090 (4H MA band) and 72,720 (retracement high) as the 4H downward retracement may weigh on upside, and set retracement selling as an equal part of the strategy.

A close above 71,390 triggers a continuation breakout long (72,090 → 72,720). Support retracements at 70,790–70,350 / 70,050–69,480 can be used for dip buying. If 71,450–72,090 (4H MA band) and 72,720 retracement high fail to sustain, consider retracement selling. If 70,790 is broken on a 1H close, it signals a short-term breakdown; if 69,480 breaks, retracement ends and 4H downtrend resumes. Given the 4H downward retrace, buy should be protected by MFE early, and retracement selling should be limited to retracements.

4H Analysis

4H shows a down- then up-move. Turned at 69,480, with no defined support and a retracement high of 72,720. The price has formed a downtrend by lowering the retracement high from 73,760 to 72,720, but rebounded from 68,170, with the swing low rising 68,170 → 69,480, and has retraced to 70,990. Price is testing the 4H 20EMA/20SMA band (71,150–72,090, trending down) and sits above the daily 120EMA (around 69,000) and the 200EMA.

It is a retrace within a downtrend, but the upmove of the basing price has strength shown by higher lows. The retrace remains a side with 71,450–72,090 and 72,720 (retracement high) acting as incremental resistance. A clear close above 72,720 is needed to consider the 4H downtrend broken. Support levels are 69,480 (turning point) and 68,170; a break below them would continue a down move.

1H Analysis

1H shows an up move (SW1). Turn at 70,790, with a higher low at 69,480 and retracement high not yet formed. From 69,480 the price rose back to 70,990. A larger wave (SW2) remains with retracement high at 72,720, aligning with the 4H down retrace. 20EMA and 80EMA are rising and price sits above them.

Short-term buyers are dominant; a break above 71,390 sustains the retrace and tests the 4H MA band (71,450–72,090). Conversely, breaking 70,790 on a 1H close will break the up-move and the retracement ends if 69,480 is broken.

15m Analysis

15m shows up- and down-moves. Turn at 71,390, with a lower found support at 70,050 and retracement high not yet formed. The price rose from 70,050 to 71,390, then small pullback to 70,990. The 20EMA and 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent) are rising and are above the 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 70,400).

If 71,390 is cleared on a 15m close, the down-move returns to an up-move and retrace continues; support at 70,790 and 70,050 would be broken, and a short-term structure would fail. The new high on the upside is not yet formed; beware the area ahead of the 4H MA band.

MTF State

  • 4H: Down/Up-move. Turn at 69,480; no defined support; retracement high 72,720. The retracement high is lowering, making a downtrend; however, price rebounded from 68,170 to 69,480, returning to 70,990. Price is testing the 4H 20EMA/20SMA band (71,150–72,090, downward) and sits above the 120EMA and 200EMA.
  • 1H: Up/Up-move (SW1). Turn at 70,790; lower bound 69,480; retracement high not formed. A larger wave (SW2) remains as a retracement aligning with 4H down; all MAs are rising.
  • 15m: Up/Down-move. Turn at 71,390; lower bound 70,050; retracement high not formed. From 70,050 to 71,390, then slight pullback to 70,990. Above the 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent).
  • Consistency: For the 4H down/up retrace, 1H and 15m are rising, so short-term should favor buying, but the higher timeframe is in a retrace within a downtrend. The higher lows (68,170 → 69,480) indicate retrace strength; until a close above 72,720 (4H retrace high), the 4H downtrend remains. Prioritize higher-timeframe action; retracement selling is the main approach, while 1H/15m up-moves can be used for dip buying and breakout chasing as long as the higher timeframe allows.

Important Prices

  • 73,760 yen: 4H/Daily retrace high and near-term high. Final upside target.
  • 72,720 yen: 4H/1H retrace high (June 26 high; 73,760 not yet taken out). Upper bound of the 4H down-move and retrace selling Zone 2.
  • 72,090 yen: 4H 20SMA band. Retrace resistance band. Upper bound of retrace selling Zone 1.
  • 71,450 yen: 4H 20EMA band. Retrace resistance band. Lower bound of retrace selling Zone 1.
  • 71,390 yen: 15m turn, near-term high. Trigger for breakout-following long.
  • 70,990 yen: Current price / Night session close price.
  • 70,790 yen: 1H turn price. Break below implies breakdown of 1H up-move. Zone 1 upper bound.
  • 70,350 yen: Recent dip target. Zone 1 lower bound.
  • 70,190 yen: Old 1H retrace high → support turned.
  • 70,050 yen: 15m low. Zone 2 upper bound.
  • 69,480 yen: 1H/4H turn and support; breakdown ends retracement and 4H downtrend resumes. Zone 2 lower bound and Trigger 4.
  • 68,800 yen: Old support. Trigger 4-1.
  • 68,170 yen: Recent low (4H). Core low.
  • 62,350 yen: 4H/Daily structural low. Key downside area.

Trade Ideas

① Breakout-following Long

  • Trigger: Break above 71,390 (15m turn & near-term high) on a 15m close (retracement continues).
  • Premiere: After breakout, a pullback toward the breakout level or near the inclined 20MA on 1m/5m timeframes to time the move (back entry, breakout-price basis).
  • Core condition: Recover above 71,390 on a 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidate: Premarket below 70,940, core below 70,790.
  • Targets: 72,090 (partial take + base), 72,720.
  • RR: T1 (72,090) = 1.6 / T2 (72,720) = 3.0.
  • Notes: 4H 20EMA/20SMA band (71,450–72,090, downward) provides incremental resistance; 72,720 is a heavy upper limit. Only consider the 4H downtrend breakdown after a clear close above 72,720. MFE protection: with +200, exit at break-even or small profit, +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. Protect early during retracement in 4H downtrend.

② Dip Buying (Long)

  • Standard: Dip zone 1: 70,790–70,350 (1H turn to latest dip) or Dip zone 2: 70,050–69,480 (15m low to 1H/4H turn low); confirm rebound on 15m close.
  • Premiere: Shallow dip around 70,500 (LC 70,200); deeper dip around 69,600 (LC 69,180). 1H/15m rising indicates short-term buying; however, because of the 4H retrace, confirm rebound only on supports at 70,050 and 69,480, checking around the 20MA for upward confirmation.
  • Core condition: Recover above 71,390 on a 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidate: Premarket below 70,200 (deep dip); core below 69,480. Full exit below 69,480.
  • Targets: 71,390 (partial take + base), 72,090.
  • RR: T1 (71,390) = 3.0 / T2 (72,090) = 5.3.
  • MFE protection: +200 to break-even or small profit, +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. Protect early on retracements during 4H downtrend.

③ Retracement Selling (Short)

  • Standard: Retrace zone 1 in 71,450–72,090 (4H 20EMA/20SMA band) confirmed by 15m close; deeper retrace uses 72,720 as Zone 2 retrace high.
  • Premiere: Retrace stall confirmed by 15m close (reference 71,500). Background is a 4H downtrend; however, 1H/15m rising lifts the lower highs, so focus on retracement selling only in the vicinity above the 20MA.
  • Core condition: Break below 70,790 on a 1H close (downward move of the 1H up-move).
  • Stop/Invalidate: Premarket above 72,140 recovery, core above 72,720 recovery. Strong invalidation if 72,720 recovers (4H retrace high recovers → go to scenario ①).
  • Targets: 70,350 (partial take + base), 70,050 / 69,480.
  • RR: T1 (70,350) = 1.8 / T2 (70,050) = 2.3.
  • MFE protection: +200 to break-even or small profit, +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. Since retracement buying will be initiated during 1H/15m up moves, avoid chasing too far; if trigger is already active, skip.

④ Breakout-following Short

  • Trigger: Break below 69,480 (1H/4H turn de stalling; lower bound) on a 15m close (retracement ends; return to 4H down move).
  • Premiere: After break, pullback toward breakout price vicinity or toward the inclined 20MA on small timeframes to time the shift (back entry, breakout price basis).
  • Core condition: Break below 68,170 on a 1H close (near-term low; 4H break → downtrend continues).
  • Stop/Invalidate: Premarket recovers 69,810, core recovers 70,350. Fully exit at 70,790.
  • Targets: 68,800 (partial take + base), 68,170 / 67,000.
  • RR: T1 (68,800) = 2.1 / T2 (68,170) = 4.0.
  • Notes: 4H has raised lower bound from 68,170 to 69,480, making the 1H/15m up-move a deep contingency; be cautious of sharp reversals and false breaks in the low-price area.
  • MFE protection: +200 to break-even or small profit, +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. Do not chase deeply during 1H/15m up-moves; if the trigger is confirmed at the current candle, skip additional entries.

Current Action

  • Most important line 1: 71,390 yen. A breakout-following long with retrace continuation after a 15m close above this level (toward 72,090 → 72,720). If stalls earlier around 71,450–72,090 (4H MA band), consider retracement selling.
  • Most important line 2: 70,790 yen (1H turn) / 69,480 yen (retracement end point). Dip maintenance + rebound is a dip buying signal. Breaking 70,790 on a 1H close warns of a short-term breakdown; break below 69,480 risks retracement ending and 4H downtrend resuming.
  • Market condition: The 4H is in a retrace within a downtrend, but the higher-lows formation (68,170 → 69,480) and 1H/15m up-moves indicate short-term buying. While maintaining retracement selling as a core strategy, note that 4H downtrend will not be broken until a close above 72,720; avoid over-committing on either side.

Entry prices, triggers, and stop levels are based on the chart shapes at the time of close (turning prices, swing lows, retracement highs of each time frame). If the structure changes over time and there is no change in higher-timeframe structure, entry prices on lower timeframes (like 15m) will be adjusted to reflect more accurate market conditions and will be adopted if more representative than initial values.

※This report is provided for information purposes and not as trading advice; investment decisions are your responsibility.