Does a dollar-yen trade change with the dollar-yen at a yen depreciation level unseen in 39 and a half years?
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Good morning, everyone.
On Monday, USD/JPY drifted to the weakest yen level in 39 and a half years.
There wasn’t much price movement, but since it’s a 39-year milestone, people are trading amid various speculation about what might happen or why it’s at a turning point.
Because it’s been 39 and a half years, let’s confirm the era context as well.
For me, I was in high school at that time, and I didn’t know anything about foreign exchange markets, nor did I care or see them.
But afterward, Japan entered an economic bubble.
The bubble occurred from the late Showa era to the early Heisei era.
Looking at the era background, I wonder if another Japanese bubble might begin soon?
The timing is such that it might make you think that.
Toyota Celsior appeared and sold extremely well, Honda NSX appeared, and the automotive industry was riding high.
There was talk of a high-class car boom, with expensive cars selling like hotcakes.
Now, it’s housing a massive financial and real estate bubble.
Even people with low incomes could buy a car with residual-value financing, and could actually ride a new car for about half price.
Well, this isn’t directly a bubble since the mechanism changed, but the vibe is that you can buy.
The vibe is a bubble.
A person earning 3.5 million yen per year could get a 7-million-yen car through residual-value financing for 4.5 million, and take out a loan to drive it.
It feels exciting, doesn’t it?
At 39 years since then, will that bubble come again?
That’s what I simply think.
In the middle of such an event, how will trading change?
Yesterday’s USD/JPY 1-minute chart
It’s a 1-minute chart, so the white □ represents one hour, and there are 60 candlesticks.
The yellow □ is from the start of the London market to just after the New York start.
This area has a lot of money flow, so moves are easier.
I have written about this many times in Investment Navigator articles.
Yesterday, or rather yesterday too, the chart looked like this, and even in a market of the 39-year high, the chart movement and appearance aren’t much different.
Charts are like bar graphs reflecting price, so seeing it that way is natural.
That means the bottom parts of blue/red arrows and red circles are always there, so if that place is a trading opportunity or revenue opportunity, you would face it there.
Therefore, even in a 39-year high, the core is unchanged, but the key for a trader is whether you can take action when you see blue/red arrows or red circles.
If the white □ is one hour, you could still trade within that single square and make a profit.
When you return home and sit in a chair to trade after NY, if the left red circle is there, what would you do? Can you transition into trading?
We are talking about outcomes now, but in real trading you would make judgments there, choose a trading method that fits, and take positions accordingly.
It comes down to whether the preparation is ready at that moment.
Because that preparation, including the method, is likely part of your own approach, choosing a method you’re good at and facing trading is the first step to achieving results.
Personally, the methods I’m good at are not only enjoyable but easy to judge, easy to understand, and quick in results.
With such aspects, for both beginners and experienced traders,
I recommend the "New Billionaire Trader Scalping" to both beginners and experienced alike, to make trading feel closer and to help them realize that trading is essentially repeating simple things.
For experienced traders, it adds to your trading skills and helps you understand why something didn’t work, and how to implement an approach that suits your experience—so I highly recommend it.
To sustain long-term, in a sense, you need to keep things simple.
If you complicate things, trading becomes difficult, and the proposed method becomes the solution to that difficulty.
There are many products sold like this, but the more you complicate, the easier it is to craft a method.
That's because sellers push that there is no answer, and buyers end up going in circles.
I think buyers end up being swayed by it.
Since it’s 39 years since the last reset, my morning article asks you to seriously face trading to reset as well.
Thank you for today as well.
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