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トウジ FX｜元バンドマン｜専業トレーダー（10pips）
06/28/2026 22:50
Release： 06/28/2026 22:50
Update： 06/28/2026 22:50
トウジ FX｜元バンドマン｜専業トレーダー（10pips）
Investment style : Scalping
Investment career : -
Investment amount : -
I make a living from FX, I want to live in a world where the people around me can smile. I hate alcohol, so I will keep drinking in order to reduce alcohol in this world, A FX trader who wants to live in an izakaya. FX is completed by one person, so there are no useless entanglements and it’s easy. "Be nudged by a selfish town, dream and reality swap places" For 2-3 years, just by working hard as if you were going to die, it’s hard in business to acquire enough skills to earn 100 million yen per year. Considering the risks of time and effort, there is nothing with a better return than FX, and with FX there is no stress in human relationships either. If you become interested in investing and actually start, you’ll be able to take a step ahead of those who don’t. A method of +10 pips per day (1-minute scalping, a method that ranked high in sales about a year ago) “FX that looks at a chart at a glance” and “Life-cost smartphone FX” — I trade by combining the two methods and their logic Scalping is efficient. In the first place, as some brokers have said, the proportion of profitable scalping traders is the highest. Even if you consider spread costs, being disadvantaged, fast moves, and difficulty, that’s a lie. Predicting price movement an hour later is impossible, but predicting momentum for about five minutes ahead isn’t. Because moves are fast, you can trade more, so by gaining experience in the number of trades, skills tend to improve more easily. Not for profit, but because there is something good there, I want to provide it to those who feel it is necessary, hence I am doing this kind of sales. ・Because it is of such value, I am making it public. ・I want it to reach people who want to learn and are serious. ・Even if it doesn’t sell, that’s fine with me.
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This Week’s FX Market Outlook
Outlook for this week in FX In technical analysis trading, fundamentals are not strictly necessary, but knowing them as knowledge becomes one of the wisdoms of trading The fundamentals are not completely unrelated to each day's movements As part of risk management, it is reassuring to consider them rather than dismissing them as merely "unnecessary"
Article cover image

【This Week, This is NG】This Week's Outlook: Be cautious of USD/JPY! What about other currencies?

【This Week, This NG】This Week's Outlook: yen pairs require caution! What about other currencies?




Trading Strategy
“Only take the parts with strong momentum at the start, stack gradually, and if possible, up to 10 pips.”

This week (the week of June 29, 2026) USD/JPY is
・Overall strong dollar buying trend continuing
・But beware of sudden “yen strength (intervention / alert)”

The U.S.-Japan interest rate gap, yen carry demand, and dollar demand remain strong, so the trend itself is still up
On the other hand, the 161–162 yen range is receiving very strong warnings of yen-buying intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan, making it dangerous to chase higher prices
Currently, USD/JPY remains in the upper-161 yen high area
It is within reach of the highest level in 39 years (in the 162 yen range).

Overall trend: buying dips favored. However, be alert for intervention in the 162 yen range.
Upside: 161.80–162.50
Downside: 160.30–160.70


■ This Week's Trading Strategy

Notes for this week's trades
For USD/JPY ahead of Thursday’s jobs data, the first half of the week may trade in a solid range around the 161 yen level
Friday is a US market holiday, so be careful

① Mon–Wed
Events (US jobs data) ahead, so likely range-bound

② Thursday (US jobs data)
Chasing in is a no-go

After the initial reaction ends,
decide which way the market really chose
to enter with higher expected value.

③ Be cautious around 162 yen
Recently, the pattern has been
“USD/JPY rises” → “intervention alert” → sharp drop
so exercise caution


■ Points seen on the chart
Around 161.00: many traders aiming to buy the dip
Below 160.50: time to re-evaluate long setups
Around 161.80–162.20: zone where take profits and mean reversion sells tend to enter
In the 162 yen range: beware of volatility as intervention alerts rise


■ Three focuses that can move this week's market
1) Preponed release of US employment data (Thursday, July 2)
Key points markets watch:
Non-farm payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate, average hourly earnings

・If the numbers are strong
US rates rise
Dollar buys
USD/JPY tests 162

・If the numbers are weak
Rate hike expectations retreat
Dollar sells
Early-to-mid 160s correction

Strong figures would raise expectations for earlier Fed rate hikes, making a move into the 162 range more plausible.

2) Caution on FX intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance
With the upper 160s to around 162 yen as uncharted territory, there is tension that actual intervention could occur at any moment. Fundamentals (U.S.–Japan rate gap, dollar strength) are clearly strong, but manage funds to avoid being swept into a multi-yen drop (gale).

3) Strength of the dollar index (DXY)
Geopolitical risks (since spring’s Iran situation) and dollar-buying trends have kept the dollar broadly strong against major currencies.


★★★ What about other currencies and currency pairs? ★★★

■ Trader-focused view: summaries of this week's outlook and strategies for each currency pair.

Summary: This week's priorities
Considering the broad dollar-strength backdrop, this week's trading priorities are as follows.
Sell rallies in EUR/USD (the dollar strength is most naturally aligned here)

Buy dips in USD/JPY (but short-term closes due to intervention risk)

Cross yen pairs (GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY) tend to be complex due to opposing moves in USD/JPY and weaker European currencies; stay cautious (or trade short-term selling).

This week, the alignment of “European political/economic concerns = euro weakness” and “US jobs data = dollar strength” suggests a smoother path by following the dollar-up trend in pairs like EURUSD rather than getting nervous about yen exposure.

What about other currency pairs?

With dollar strength, major European pairs (EUR, GBP) carry their own weak factors and political risks, making them differently challenging than USD/JPY.


【More about each currency】

■ EUR/USD
【View: Down (sell the rallies)】 1.1400 support defense and risk of a break below

Last week broke below the recent key support at 1.1400 temporarily, continuing a path toward the year-to-date lows.

Background: Although rate-hike expectations for the ECB exist, current economic indicators hint at stagflation risks, making Euro weakness stand out against the dollar.

This week's strategy:
Principle: sell the rallies. If there is a test up toward around 1.1400, that becomes an excellent short opportunity.
If US jobs data are strong this week, a move toward the low 1.13s could be pursued.

■ GBP/JPY
【View: Range to slightly lower】 British political risk vs. yen-levitated dollar moves

Dollar-weak yen has pushed GBP/JPY toward the high near 213, but the pound’s own stance remains heavy.

Background: The surprise resignation of PM Sunak has left political uncertainty (Labour leadership contest, with Andy Burnham as a likely contender). Also, UK services PMI and other data have deteriorated, reducing BOE rate hike expectations.

This week's strategy:
Estimated range: 211.00–216.00. If USD/JPY climbs toward 162, GBP/JPY may also rise, but UK-specific factors keep the pound’s upside capped, leading to a squeeze where GBPUSD falls and GBPJPY is restrained.
The biggest headwind is yen-buying intervention. If intervention occurs, GBP/JPY can fall a few yen, making long positions risky.

■ EUR/JPY
【View: High-level range as a watch for resistance】 Focus around the 184 area

Background & strategy:
Last week it briefly moved to the mid-183s, then recovered to around 184.00 by the weekend (this week's assumed range: 182.00–186.50).
Because EUR/USD remains weak, EUR/JPY’s autonomous rebound is limited. It largely depends on whether USD/JPY can break 162. The mid-185s often act as a resistance, and as with USD/JPY, careful take-profits near the top are advised due to intervention risk from Japanese authorities.



The method I am currently practicing is here
【Steady 1 day +10 pips】
Learned from a professional trader and escaped the losing streak with a one-minute FX method (2–5 hours per day)
Explained with smartphone chart images
【Entry points】【Exit points】are clear in this logic

■ Thoughts from overseas professional traders (legends like Buffett and Soros)
Trading not to “win” but to “make money”
Trade based on where the probability of a rise is highest, not on win-rate
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https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/76385

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