NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: 2026-06-27 08:45 JST / Night Session Close Basis

Current Value: 69,610 yen

Subject: For intraday session

Conclusion

This week traded in wide ranges: from 72,000 to the 69,000s, then to the 71,000s, back to 72,000, and again to the 69,000s. On the final day it stalled again at 72,720 and sharply fell to 68,760, finishing near 69,610. The 4H has turned into a downtrend, the 1H shows a retrace/upward wave (recent rebound), and the 15m shows a retrace/downward wave, with a deeper correction from 72,720 creating a range (68,760–70,190). During the day, the move is viewed with a preference for selling in rallies against the 4H downtrend, but since it is within a range, both sides should be watched cautiously.

A rally stall between 69,840–70,190 suggests selling into rallies; if 69,480 closes below on a 1H basis, further decline resumes (toward 68,920). If 70,190 closes above on a 15m basis, the rally continues with a breakout follow-through long (70,810→71,800). A break below 68,760 (range lower bound) accelerates the decline, with 69,000 (center of gravity) and 68,400 as support bands. Since the 4H is in a downtrend, rallies are treated as selling opportunities, with contrarian buys limited and MFE protection accelerated to avoid excessive risk.

4H Analysis

The 4H is a downtrending wave. Turn to 71,800, no formation of a support low, rally high at 73,760. After declining from the peak of 73,760, it fell to 68,760 and then to 69,610. The 20EMA/20SMA are downward, with price below them, but it remains above the 120EMA (roughly the daily 20EMA around 68,500) and the 200EMA (around 66,800). It has shifted from a retrace/ rise to a downtrend.

Until 71,800 is recovered with a close, the downtrend remains dominant, with rallies viewed as selling opportunities. Upper targets: 70,810; 71,800; 72,720; 73,760. Lower targets: 68,760; 68,400; 68,000 (120EMA), then 66,110 and 62,350.

1H Analysis

The 1H is a retrace/upward wave. Turn to 69,480, no established minor low, rally high 72,720. After falling from 72,720 to 68,760, it retraced to 70,190 and then pressed to 69,610. Consolidation near the 20EMA.

If 69,480 closes above on a 1H basis, the uptrend resumes; if 70,190 is broken to the upside, the rally continues. Wait for either side to depart from the range (68,760–70,190).

15m Analysis

The 15m is a retrace/downward wave. Turn to 69,840, with 68,920 as a noted support low, and no retrace high formed yet. It has oscillated within 68,760→70,190→68,920→69,610, staying below the 20EMA and below the 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 70,400).

If 69,840 closes above on a 15m basis, the short-term down move eases and a rebound continues if 70,190 is broken. Conversely, a break below 68,920/68,760 resumes the decline. New high higher than the recent range is not formed; remain mindful of the range within.

MTF Status

• 4H: Downward / downward wave. Turn to 71,800; no formed support low; rally high 73,760. From 72,720 (73,760 not updated) to 68,760, price falls to 69,610. 20EMA/20SMA bearish with price below them, while price sits above 120EMA (daily 20EMA vicinity) and 200EMA (near 66,800). Downtrend shifted from retrace/upward wave to downward wave.
• 1H: Retrace / upward wave. Turn to 69,480; no formed support low; rally high 72,720. After 68,760→70,190 rebound, price presses to 69,610. Consolidation near the 20EMA.
• 15m: Retrace / downward wave. Turn to 69,840; 68,920 support low; no retrace high yet. Oscillating within 68,760–70,190 and below the 320EMA (roughly 70,400).
• Consistency: In the 4H downtrend, the 1H is retrace/upward, and the 15m is retrace/downward, so short-term is range-bound. With higher timeframes prioritized, rallies are the main axis for selling; however, as long as the 68,760–70,190 range persists, both dip-buying and breakout-following longs should be considered equally, with gains taken on rallies up to the 71,800 (4H turn) recovery.

OI & Gamma Analysis

OI is a mid-term target based on the previous business day's (6/26) flow. It represents the centroids of mid-term reach tied to expiration and weightings at turning points, not used as a short-term trigger; used for targets (T2) and milestone weighting.

• Farther ceiling above = 72,000 yen: As the week ends, a renewed decline lifts the 72,000 call wall further about 3,000 yen above the current level. It’s more of a distant ceiling than an immediate upside target.
• Nearby centroid ≈ 69,000 yen: This is where today’s trading activity concentrated. The most active is 69,000 puts (over half blocked), a center of gravity where the market tends to pause.
• Near term (July) not increasing: July puts are roughly flat (67,000 liquidated to 57,500–58,000). New downside hedges are being built into August, with caution shifting to later expiry. Rather than panic now, price tail protection is planned further out. Some 71,000–76,000 calls are being added on the upside.
• Futures positions are also shrinking: In a down market, futures positions are being liquidated and positions reduced. Large directional bets are limited.
• Floor values = 65,000・55,000 yen (plus new hedges at 57,500–58,000 for August). SQ is 7/10 (about two weeks remaining). The direction of downside protection at current levels this week will be clarified in next Monday’s weekly data.

Important Prices

• 73,760 yen: 4H/1H/daily retrace high and recent all-time high. Final upside target.
• 72,720 yen: Most recent rally high (6/26 high; 73,760 not yet updated).
• 72,000 yen: Far ceiling for OI (again about 3,000 higher).
• 71,800 yen: 4H turn price. A distant confirmation line for 4H upturn.
• 70,810 yen: Former swing low / rally selling candidate band (Zone 2).
• 70,190 yen: 15m nearest rally high / range upper bound. Trigger for breakout-following long.
• 69,840 yen: 15m turn price. Upper bound of Rally Sell Zone 1.
• 69,610 yen: Current price / Night close value.
• 69,480 yen: 1H turn price. Break below signals resumption of downside move.
• 69,000 yen: Center of gravity for OI (notable level; main 69,000 puts).
• 68,920 yen: 15m support low. Core of short-term support. Lower bound of Zone 2.
• 68,760 yen: Recent low / range lower bound. Break below triggers further decline (Trigger ④).
• 68,400 yen: Old adjustment low / strong support (Lower bound of Zone 2).
• 68,000 yen: 4H 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent).
• 65,000 yen: Floor of OI (new hedges at 57,500–58,000 for August).
• 62,350 yen: 4H/daily structural low. Most important on the downside.

Trade Ideas

① Breakout Following (Long)

• Trigger: Break above 70,190 (15m latest rally high / range upper bound) on a 15m close (range breakout; rally continuation).
• Precondition: After breakout, price may pull back near breakout level or near a slight incline around 20MA on a short timeframe (1m/5m) to time the wave shift (back-entry, breakout price basis).
• Climax Condition: 70,190 recovers on a 1H close.
• Stop/Invalidate: Prior leg breaks below 69,730; main leg breaks below 69,480.
• Targets: 70,810 (partial profit + cost basis), 71,800.
• RR: T1 70,810 = 1.3 / T2 71,800 = 3.5.
• Note: In a 4H downtrend, this is a reversal-leaning breakout; since rallies do not reach high enough before 4H turn recovery, avoid chasing highs and protect gains early.
• MFE Protection: Close or take small profit at +200; secure at least +100 with +300; use trailing as needed.

② Buy on Dips (Long)

• Standard: shallow dip Zone 1 69,480–68,920 (1H turn to 15m support low) or Zone 2 68,760–68,400 (recent low to old adjustment low) and confirm bounce with 15m close.
• Precondition: Shallow dip around 69,200 (LC 68,830) or deeper dip around 68,500 (LC 68,330). As a contrarian against a 4H downtrend, limit to clear rebound on support at 69,000 and 68,760/68,400; confirm near the 20MA recovery zone.
• Climax Condition: 69,840 recovers on a 1H close.
• Stop/Invalidate: Prior leg breaks at 68,830 (deep dip 68,330); main leg breaks 68,400. Full exit below 68,400.
• Targets: 69,840 (partial profit + cost) and 70,190.
• RR: T1 69,840 = 1.7 / T2 70,190 = 2.7.
• MFE Protection: Close or take small profit at +200; secure at least +100 with +300; avoid over-keeping in a downtrend; protect early. If T1 already reached on the trigger bar, skip.

③ Rally Sell (Short)

• Standard: Rally zone 69,840–70,190 (15m turn–recent rally high) stalls, confirm on 15m close. If deep rally occurs, use 70,810 (old swing low → resistance) as Zone 2.
• Precondition: Confirm stall in the rally zone by 15m close (pre-check around 69,890). Downtrend backdrop makes it a trend-following rally sell.
• Climax Condition: 69,480 breaks on a 1H close (downturn in the 1H up move = decline resumes).
• Stop/Invalidate: Prior leg recovers to 70,240; main leg recovers to 70,810; strong invalidation at 71,800 (4H turn recovery → back to ①).
• Targets: 68,920 (partial profit + cost), 68,760 / 68,400.
• RR: T1 68,920 = 2.8 / T2 68,400 = 4.3.
• MFE Protection: Close or take small profit at +200; secure at least +100 with +300; avoid deep chasing within range. If trigger foot has reached T1, defer further entries.

④ Breakout Following (Short)

• Trigger: Break below 68,760 (recent low / range lower bound) on a 15m close (range breakout; decline intensifies).
• Precondition: After break, pull back near breakout price or around the upsloping 20MA on short timeframes (1m/5m) to time wave shifts (back-entry, breakout price basis).
• Climax Condition: 68,400 breaks on a 1H close (old adjustment low / strong support breaks).
• Stop/Invalidate: Prior leg recovers to 69,090; main leg recovers to 69,480. Complete exit below 69,840.
• Targets: 68,400 (partial profit + cost), 68,000 / 67,000 (final target is OI floor 65,000).
• RR: T1 68,400 = 1.1 / T2 68,000 = 2.3.
• Notes: Support at 69,000 and 68,760/68,400 remains, but OI shows no immediate addition of downside protection for the near July expiry; hedges are moving to August. Exercise caution for a potential shallow panic, and confirm with a clear close before triggering.
• MFE Protection: Close or take small profit at +200; secure at least +100 with +300; protect early due to range-bound nature. If the trigger has been confirmed and T1 reached, skip other entries.

Current Actions

• Most important line 1: 69,840–70,190. If rally stalls, sell into rallies (consistent with 4H downtrend). If 70,190 closes above on a 15m basis, continue rally with breakout-following long (70,810→71,800), but take profits at least up to 71,800.
• Most important line 2: 69,480–68,760. If 69,480 breaks on a 1H close, decline resumes (→68,920); if 68,760 breaks, range breaks lower and decline intensifies. 69,000 (center) and 68,400 are support bands.
• Market tone: 4H has turned to downtrend with a priority for selling rallies, but as long as the 68,760–70,190 range persists, monitor both sides. OI shows no strong near-term panic for July, but the 72,000 wall is distant, so avoid excessive chasing on both sides.

Entry prices, triggers, and stops are set based on the chart shape at the close time (turning prices, support lows, and rally highs for each timeframe). If structure changes with time but higher timeframes remain unchanged, entry prices for lower timeframes (such as 15m) should be adjusted to reflect the actual conditions and chosen those that align better with reality.

Note: This report is for information purposes and not investment advice; trading decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader.