【Dollar-Yen】This week heads toward a 162-yen minefield. Exercise caution for the unusually scheduled Thursday employment report!

This week's USD/JPY starts from a historical high near1 dollar = 161.75 yen, and with the big milestone of “162.00 yen” just ahead, there is a palpable sense that intervention could come at any moment.

I’ve distilled the key points you need for this week into a minimal guide.

? Top 3 topics for this week

1. U.S. employment data is on an unusual Thursday schedule!

Due to the U.S. holiday on 7/4, the most important U.S. employment data will be released early at7月2日（木）21:30 JST. Because the U.S. market will be closed on the following Friday the 3rd, expect tricky price moves toward the end of the week.

2. Market expectations are “slightly weak” but…?

Nonfarm payrolls: +11.4 million to +14.5 million (previous: 172,000)

Unemployment rate: 4.3%

Average hourly earnings (month-over-month): +0.3%

The figures are expected to slow, but be wary of upside surprises driven by factors like the North American Soccer Cup impact on employment.

3. The 162 yen level is a “minefield for intervention”

While the spread between U.S. and Japanese yields supports a floor around 160, entering the 162 range greatly raises the risk of substantial declines triggered by actual intervention by the government and/or BOJ.

? Key schedules (Japan time)

 6/30(Tue) 23:00｜ U.S. consumer confidence index / JOLTS job openings

 7/1(Wed) 23:00｜ U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

 7/2(Thu) 21:30｜ U.S. Employment Statistics (Very Important) ?

 7/3(Fri) All day ｜ U.S. markets closed (Independence Day holiday replacement) ⚠️ Thin liquidity—be cautious

? One word for this week

The baseline is a stronger dollar and weaker yen, but once above 162 yen, you’re in a state where you never know when a bomb (intervention) could drop. In particular, liquidity dries up on Friday due to the U.S. market holiday, so keep positions light and employ stop losses.