【Trail to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Recognition and Memorandum_20260628】
【Dream Trajectory FX Major Currencies Market Environment Recognition & Memo 20260628】
June 28, Sunday.
Hello.
It’s the rainy season with rain on and off.
The rainy season, isn’t it?
The temperature isn’t very high, so
I feel it’s easy to get through.
Since the end of June flow and the quarterly end flow are coming
in,
technical view becomes
a difficult market view to understand.
I understand that the US dollar is strong,
and I also understand that interventions could happen at any time.
It wouldn’t be surprising if one occurs.
Now, let’s confirm.
The figures are at the timing of the daily close.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 18th candle / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle 16th candle / 6
Weekly volatility: 149 pips
HPC 1st cycle: 76th candle / 26 or
HPC 2nd cycle: 15th candle / 6 or
HPC 2nd cycle: 3rd candle
4HC 1st or 2nd cycle: 16th candle / 14
I interpret it as such.
The US dollar appears strong.
Since 4HC reaches a turning point,
a slight rise is conceivable.
However, I see there isn’t much momentum.
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20260628 FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/iPMB6uC9DVo
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 22nd candle
Weekly: 3rd cycle 22nd candle / 22 or
Weekly: 4th cycle 8th candle / 8
Weekly volatility: 87 pips
HPC 2nd or Daily 1st 38th candle / 37
4HC 3rd cycle: 67th candle / 59
I interpret it as such.
162.0 is a major barrier.
With the yen selling positions at 150,000 contracts in IMM,
it wouldn’t be surprising if an intervention occurs at any time.
I would like to trade after movements occur.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 18th candle / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle 13th candle / 5
Weekly volatility: 132 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle 30th candle / 6 LT or
HPC 1st cycle: 64th candle / 24 or
HPC 2nd cycle: 3rd candle
4HC 2nd cycle: 58th candle / 29 or
4HC 1st or 4th or 6th: 15th candle / 13
I interpret it as such.
The daily turning points are hard to discern, to be honest.
However, since it’s rising at the 4HC turning point,
I am viewing the early part of the week with a bullish bias.
I would like to look forward to a bearish candle as a follow-up.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 23rd candle / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle 20th candle / 10
Weekly volatility: 222 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 38th candle / 30
4HC 4th cycle: 15th candle / 13
I interpret it as such.
It is a chart influenced by EUR/USD.
Since USD/JPY is quiet,
it’s unavoidable.
If there is an intervention somewhere and USD/JPY falls,
an accompanying decline in EUR/JPY is likely to occur.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 23rd candle / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle 19th candle / 11
Weekly volatility: 213 pips
HPC 2nd: 42nd candle / 27
4HC 4th cycle: 58th candle / 39 LT
I interpret it as such.
The daily turning points are moving into the latter half as well.
Affected by GBP/USD, it seems to have declined,
but it’s a chart that rises at turning points.
If GBP/USD declines
and USD/JPY is intervened,
a sharp decline is possible.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 15th candle / 15
Weekly: 3rd cycle 19th candle / 16
Weekly volatility: 219 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 42nd candle / 24
4HC 4th cycle: 5th candle / 3
I interpret it as such.
The daily view is more bearish in the second half,
and the downtrend continues.
There may be a temporary rise at the 4HC turning point,
and it will move similarly to AUD/USD.
If AUD/USD declines
and USD/JPY declines,
a large drop in AUD/JPY is conceivable.
I would like to focus on this week’s employment data move.
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20260628 FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/iPMB6uC9DVo
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DXY 101.366 -0.07
US10Y 4.376 -0.32%
DJI 51,881 USD -45
US500 -0.45%
WTI 69.665 USD
BRN 72.6 USD
Nikkei 225 69,360 yen -3,005
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