MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Jun.29 2026
1. Review
Last week, the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 69,360, down 1,890 points from the previous week. The week's high was 72,831 on Monday the 22nd. The week's low was 68,461 on Wednesday the 24th. Although the weekly low approached the lower support line, it did not fall below it and rebounded. At the close, it was moving between the lower support line and the upper resistance line, indicating a neutral but firm tone. Therefore, the continuation of the bullish trend remains highly likely. In fact, the week's closing price exceeded the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for 12 consecutive weeks. Thus, the underlying trend remains in an “uptrend” state.
2. Cycles
As previously noted, in “Forecast 2026,” the long-term market cycle duration for the Nikkei Stock Average has been changed from 17 years to 19 years. However, the starting point at October 28, 2008, of 6,994 remains unchanged. Therefore, the question of where this 19-year cycle bottomed, or whether it has not yet bottomed, will be a focus in 2026. That said, there is no change to the view that the current market is composed of a four-year cycle, and the development of future long-term cycles will be influenced by the near-term PC (usually 12–20 weeks). At present, from the long-term cycle perspective, very important lows are August 5, 2024 at 31,156 and April 7, 2025 at 30,792. These two lows are the 16-week and 19-week PC bottoms, sandwiched around November 28, 2024 at 37,801.
Further details are in the PDF file.
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