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とこやさん
06/29/2026 07:42
Release： 06/29/2026 07:42
Update： 06/29/2026 07:42
とこやさん
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 1 million - 5 million JPY
FX has 15 years of history. Focusing on discretionary trading, I trade with emphasis on market structure and order flow bias. Trading style: I strictly pursue trend-following pullbacks and selloffs (occasionally aiming for breakouts). Based on higher-timeframe momentum, I check for expanding/contracting volatility and price ranges where orders tend to accumulate, and I target only when I can judge that risk-reward is favorable. Rather than "scenes that look like I might win," the基本 principle is to prioritize "not touching markets that are likely to lose." On days when conditions are not aligned, it is not uncommon to skip entries. As I continue discretionary trading, I feel the challenge of explaining clearly why my judgments were correct or why they were wrong in certain situations, and I began developing EA and indicators to verify and organize trading decisions. In the early development, I defined entry conditions in detail and built logic to increase signals, but past backtests looked favorable while in real markets there were many cases where expected value collapsed in certain market environments. From that experience, I became strongly aware that many losses are caused not by entry conditions themselves but by misperceptions of the market environment. Currently, I prioritize判断ing whether the market is one worth trading now and where distortions will appear if pushed too far, treating the market as a phase (environment). What I want to provide users through EA and indicators is not flashy logic or mechanisms that attract attention temporarily, but realistic decision criteria for continually facing the market and the know-how behind them. Markets are always changing. Therefore, I do not believe in delivering a finished tool unilaterally as the end product. Reviews and opinions from users who actually use it are extremely important not only as a developer but also as a trader. Based on such feedback, I aim to improve continuously, refining both the tool and the trading environment to create a win-win relationship that benefits both users and creators. What I personally aim for is not something flashy and easy to understand that cannot be sustained, but "trading that can be steadily built up under realistic risk management." Rather than short-term results, I want to be able to face the market continually and keep trades I can be satisfied with in judgment. I hope to refine the mindset and tools for that purpose together with you, the users.
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【This Week’s Nikkei Average Forecast】 Is the pullback a buying opportunity, or the start of a downturn? Strategy for this week considering resistance/support turn

The Nikkei average rose to the highest level in history, but over the weekend it fell by about 4%. Profit-taking selling in AI and semiconductor-related stocks, which had been bought heavily in a short period, spread, and the market cooled down once.

So, what kind of developments can be expected this week?

Personally, I am paying more attention to where the resistance-support reversal will occur than to which direction it will move.

Scenario ① (Main)

Recover to 70,000 and form a pullback while rising

This is the scenario I consider most likely.

The rapid drop this time has somewhat alleviated the short-term overheating.

On the other hand, it is hard to believe that the inflow of funds into AI-related stocks leading the Japanese market has completely ended, so a pullback buying environment is likely to occur.

Targeted resistance-support reversal

For example,

  • Break above 70,000
  • Pull back once toward around 70,000
  • 70,000 becomes support
  • Reversal signal appears

If it takes this form, it will be a very clean resistance-support reversal.

“Chasing the breakout” is not the aim; rather, waiting for the pullback after the breakout.

This is likely to be the scenario with the highest expected value.

Scenario②

Stoppage near 69,000 and rebound

If profit-taking selling continues, there is a possibility of a pullback to around 69,000.

However, if buying pressure comes in at this price range,

  • Stops the decline
  • Lowers highs and raises lows
  • A reversal signal appears

then

it becomes a very favorable setup for buying on pullbacks.

Rather than forcing purchases during the fall,

the key is to

confirm that the downtrend has stopped.

Scenario③

Clearly break below 69,000

If it breaks below 69,000,

there is a possibility of a short-term adjustment phase.

In this case,

instead of a buying] stance,

switch to a selling-on-rebound stance.

For example,

  • Break below 69,000
  • Briefly return to around 69,000
  • Function as resistance
  • Sell reversal signal

If such resistance-support reversals appear, selling becomes a consideration in the scenario.

In other words,

the important thing is not the price itself, but the moment when the role reverses.

Events to watch this week

This week,

  • US employment data
  • Japan’sBank of Japantankan (short-term business outlook)
  • PMIs for Japan and the US manufacturing sectors

and other important events continue.

These could trigger increased volatility, and an important price level could see resistance-support reversals occur.

How I would target it

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