【Next Week's Market Forecast】Can Gold continue to rebound｜Watching First 4,175・Second 4,345

First, a look back.

I wrote recently: “Gold has moved into a position where a sizable rebound can be targeted from here.”

As a result, gold rebounded. It moved as I anticipated.

So, how I view next week. I will write focusing on gold, incorporating the USD/JPY as well.

First, this rebound was a “mean-reversion” move

To be honest. this rebound target was a contrarian move against the downtrend.

From a high area, it had undergone a large correction, selling off in the short term. The idea is to capture the rebound from that “overdone decline.”

Because it was a contrarian move, entry was made cautiously. Not buying all at once, but initiating long positions in splits as the rebound first moves confirmed. I had also decided from the outset that if the move continued to break lower contrary to expectations, I would exit early.

Because of this premise, I was able to capture the rebound clearly.

Gold next week: first target 4,175, second target 4,345

The target from here is clear.

・First target: 4,175
・Second target: 4,345

I am watching for an initial move to test 4,175. If this level is clearly surpassed, there is room for it to extend to 4,345 next.

However, one thing not to forget: this is still a rebound within a downtrend.

As long as the overall flow remains downward, there is always a chance of a pullback selling pressure somewhere. Therefore, while aiming to capture the rebound, I will also protect gains if the run slows down.

Note: The “exit line” is the most important for mean-reversion

Next week, if you’re aiming for a long in gold, please keep this in mind.

Mean-reversion can be substantial if it works, but if it fails, a late stop can devastate your position. Therefore, decide in advance at what point you will exit if the price breaks below a certain level.

・Enter only after confirming the rebound’s initial move (don’t jump in)
・Don’t buy in one go; use staggered entries ・If the downside continues, exit from contrarian positions early
・Consider taking partial profits at 4,175; 4,345 is a upside bonus if it extends

For contrarian plays, the most important thing is the exit line rather than target profits. If this becomes vague, you’ll spoil the benefit of the rebound.

On the other hand, USD/JPY tends to face downward pressure due to its negative correlation

USD/JPY remains in a boring, range-bound stalemate as always.

However, one thing to keep in mind next week: its negative correlation with gold.

Right now, gold and USD/JPY tend to move in opposite directions. In other words, if gold rebounds and rises, USD/JPY tends to come under downward pressure.

If you’re aiming for a long in gold, view USD/JPY with a downside bias—the combination is considered the basic setup for next week.

That said, USD/JPY is still in a consolidation. Until it clearly breaks lower, there is no need to force a short position. Watch whether USD/JPY begins to break down as gold rebounds—just that much is enough.

Pushing into positions when there is no clear sense of direction is where you lose the most. Focus on the direction in motion (now gold) and treat USD/JPY as a signal of negative correlation.

Next week’s strategy summary

・Gold looks for continued rebound. Targets: 4,175 and 4,345
・But this is a contrarian play against the downtrend. Be cautious, use partial entries
・Enter only after confirming the rebound’s initial move. Do not jump in ・If downside continues, exit contrarian positions early
・USD/JPY is negatively correlated with gold. Downside pressure tends to come behind the rebound (bearish on USD/JPY)

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https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/118932

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