Aiming for the Expected Value Only: Successful traders fight with "probability" rather than "prediction"

[Targeting Only the Expected Value] Successful traders fight not with prediction but with probability

Many people try to forecast the market.

“It should rise.” “It should reverse soon.”

However, I hear that those who stay winning for a long time are different

The traders who are winning now do not try to predict the future;
they keep waiting only for high-probability situations.

In fact, many of the old-fashioned traders are the same

That legendary trader Warren Buffett, and George Soros
“trade only where there is an edge (positive expected value).”
I hear.

Of course, that doesn’t mean you will definitely win.

“Expected value” is a probability, so it is natural to move toward the lower probability side at times

In other words, to bet on “expected value” means to operate with the assumption that you will lose at times.

In the market there are times of winning and times of losing.
Because that is normal, plan in advance and act according to rules rather than emotions.

Wait for a simple market and for the market you are good at.

Don’t fight unnecessarily.

And when a chance comes, enter without hesitation.

People who are losing fail to enter when they should, chase after losses, and panic-sell at the moments they should endure.

It is too late to think about tactics once you are on the battlefield.

And you can choose that battlefield yourself.
If you think “this is bad,” you can skip that battlefield.


Both markets and life cannot be grew by avoiding getting hurt endlessly.
Only those who move forward while accepting small losses get closer to being a winner.

Ultimately, no one can predict the future with perfect accuracy.

That is why responding to events, not forecasting, is important.

If a trend appears, ride it. If conditions aren’t right, wait.

That’s all.

What separates winners from losers is not the ability to predict the future, but whether you can calmly continue actions with high probability.

Small pips steadily and reliably.
That is the “holy grail” style I reached from the losing side, albeit finally.
Trading style varies from person to person, but I think a common winning path is to trade calmly on the edge value.


Currently, the method I am practicing is here
[Steady +10 pips per day]
Taught by professional traders, the one-minute FX method that helped me escape the losing side (1–2 hours per day)
Explained with smartphone chart images
Logics that clearly show [entry points] and [exit points]

■ Thoughts of overseas pro traders (legendary investors Buffett and Soros)
A trading method not for “winning” but for “earning”
Trade only with the expectation value, not the win rate, by going long where the odds are higher

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https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/76385


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