★Explosive power = danger? What we learned from a year-long test★
Explosive-Martin Operation
Know your enemy to dramatically reduce risk!
The greatest enemy of the martingale is a "streak of losses"
What matters most in martingale is not simply the win rate.
The real point to watch is,how many consecutive losses the logic allows before it triggers a recovery.
Because in martingale operations, the more losses in a row, the higher the lot size escalates, increasing required margin and unrealized loss risk. In other words, checking the number of consecutive losses is extremely important for judging the risk of a martingale EA.
If you operate without knowing this...
Consecutive-loss distribution confirmed after about 1 year of testing
```In this backtest, we counted the number of consecutive losses to see how often such streaks occurred.
| Consecutive losses | Occurrences | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 loss | 195 times | 51.46% |
| 2 losses | 98 times | 25.86% |
| 3 losses | 54 times | 14.25% |
| 4 losses | 23 times | 6.07% |
| 5 losses | 5 times | 1.32% |
| 6 losses | 4 times | 1.06% |
| 7 losses | 0 times | 0.00% |
| 8 losses | 1 time | 0.26% |
Consecutive-loss distribution graph
```※ To improve readability, tiny value bars are displayed with a minimum width.
```Key points
```Occurrence of 5 or more consecutive losses is limited to a total ofabout 2.64%
8 consecutive losses, in annual testing, occurred only oncein a year
This shows how often the most cautious loss sequence in martingale operation occurs. We reveal this data openly.
```Why this data provides strong grounds
```In a martingale EA, looking at win rate alone does not reveal true risk. Even with a high win rate, frequent extreme loss streaks can place a heavy burden on capital.
Therefore, in this EA we check not only the profit outcome but also how often losses occurred.
In about a year of testing, the maximum loss streak reached 8, yet the test completed with the same settings.
This is a very important check point for martingale operation. It confirms the test across about a year of market conditions, not just a short period with profits.
``````
This loss distribution comes from past backtest results and does not guarantee that future markets will yield the same loss counts.
But, for judging martingale EAs, openly showing not only profits but also loss risks is considered important for operational decisions.
```Martingale cannot be run long-term.
Validated with the above white-box approach
No curve-fitting.
No setting changes.
Completed backtesting for about 1 year with the same settings.
What I want to convey most this time
Martingale EAs tend to generate large profits in the short term, but may dramatically collapse over longer validations.
Therefore, what matters is not short-term profits, but how far you can operate without changing settings even as market conditions change.
In this validation, we completed about a year of testing without changing settings and without curve-fitting.
What this validation did not do
```No optimization to fit past markets.
The test was conducted with the same settings for about a year.
Parameters were not changed to force profits during the test.
To verify the EA's genuine performance.
About 1 year of backtest results
```| Item | Result |
|---|---|
| Testing period | June 2025 to June 2026 |
| Currency pair | XAUUSD |
| Initial capital | $1,000 |
| Ending balance | $8,899.97 |
| Net profit | $7,899.97 |
| Capital growth | About 890% |
| Total trades | 1,476 |
| Win rate | 52.44% |
| Profit factor | 1.43 |
| Maximum drawdown | 46.70% |
Meaning of enduring martingale for one year
Martingale operations offer recovery strength and capital efficiency when winning. However, over long periods, surviving streaks of losses or market skew is crucial.
In this validation, we completed about a year of backtesting without changing settings.
This is not simply about “making profit.”
What truly matters in martingale operations is, whether you could operate for a long time with the same settings.
Why the win rate 52.44% still accrued profit
A win rate of 52.44% may not look impressive at first glance.
But the important thing is not the win rate alone.
Profit balance, capital efficiency, and the ability to maintain long-term operation.
In this validation, we conducted about 1 year of trading with the same settings across 1,476 trades,growing the capital from $1,000 to $8,899.97.
Drawdown
Maximum drawdown was 46.70%. This is not a small figure.
Yet presenting only favorable numbers is meaningless. What matters is assessing both profit and risk to make a judgment.
This validation aims to confirm the EA's inherent performance and does not implement capital management such as:
- Compounding
- Lot-up proportional to profits
- Lot-down during drawdown
- Capital management according to risk
These results are from about a year of testing under the same conditions.
In actual trading, you can tailor the lot size according to your capital and risk tolerance to create your own trading plan.
Value of this validation
This is not merely about making profit.
Martingale operation.
No curve-fitting.
No setting changes.
About one year with the same settings tested.
There is value in having completed the validation to the end under these conditions and accumulating profit.
No optimization. No mid-term changes.
About one year of backtesting with the martingale EA using the same settings.
$1,000 → $8,899.97
Results cover not only a short period but various market environments.
※ Actual results may differ due to market conditions, spreads, order execution environment, and operation settings.
※ There is risk of loss in EA operation. Always trade with funds you can afford to lose.
