NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: June 26, 2026 06:04 JST / Night Session

Current Value: 71,250 JPY

Target: For the Daytime Session (6/26)

※ Primary judgment is Dow (closing price structure) + OI. Elliott Wave is a framework for contextual reinforcement and phase management of wave counts and is not a sole basis for entries.

Conclusion

Night session rose to 72,720 but faced an OI wall at 72,000 and briefly broke above 72,210–72,330, then sharply reversed to 72,720→70,810, after which it retraced back to 71,800 and closed at 71,250. The 4H remains in an upwave, but the 1H shows a downwave (pullback) and the 15m has turned downward = in the short term, a consolidation range from the 72,720 high. For the daytime, expect range/adjustment between 70,810 and 72,720, waiting to see whether it moves toward the upside 72,720 or the downside 70,810.

Breakout long on close above 71,800 (71,800 close) targets 72,310→72,720. With a pullback continuation at 70,810–70,320, buy the dips. If 71,800–72,310 stalls, consider selling on rallies. If 70,810 is broken on a 15m close, expect continuation of the correction (→70,320), and a break below 68,930 signals a shift to an uptrend collapse from the 15m start. The 4H uptrend remains, but short-term corrections and upside price action are heavy; avoid overextending on both buys and sells and protect against MFE early.

4H Analysis

4H shows a reset (no clear trend) with an upwave. After rebounding from a deep correction low at 68,400, price has risen from 68,930 to 72,720 and then pulled back to 71,250. The 20EMA/20SMA are rising, with price above them, and price remains above the 120EMA (around 68,500 on the daily) and the 200EMA (around 66,500), indicating an ongoing uptrend.

However, the trend display is a “reset”; the uptrend cannot be considered resumed until the 73,760 pullback high is exceeded on a closing basis. Resistance targets are 72,720 (recent high), 73,180, and 73,760. Support at 70,810 (recent low) and 68,930 (turning point). Although 72,000 OI wall was briefly broken at 72,720, it could not be sustained, signaling heavy resistance above.

1H Analysis

1H shows an up and down wave pattern. The turning price is 71,800, pullback low at 68,930, and the retrace high is not yet formed. Price rose from 68,930 to 72,720, then pulled back 72,720→70,810→71,800→71,250. The 20EMA turned flat after rising and price stays near that level.

If 71,800 closes above on a 1H basis, the down move returns to an uptrend, testing 72,310→72,720. Conversely, a close below 70,810 on a 1H basis suggests the correction continues and targets 70,320 or 69,800.

15m Analysis

15m shows a down/up wave. Turning price 71,510, no clear pullback low, with a high of 72,720. A sharp drop from 72,720 to 70,810 initiated a downtrend, with a rebound to 71,800 and then 71,250. The 20EMA is declining and price sits below it; the 320EMA (approx. 4H 20EMA level around 71,000) is nearby and acting as support.

If 71,510 is broken on a 15m close, the short-term down move eases and an upturn can occur with a recovery to 71,800 (1H turning point). If 70,810 is broken on a 15m close, the down move continues. In the short term, we are in a consolidation from the 72,720 high, awaiting confirmation on direction.

MTF State

• 4H：Reset / Upwave. Deep correction low at 68,400, rebound from 68,930 to 72,720, then pullback to 71,250. 20EMA/20SMA rising; price above them; upmove remains above the 120EMA (daily ~68,500) and 200EMA (~66,500).
• 1H：Up / Down wave. Turning price 71,800; pullback low 68,930; retrace high not yet formed. 72,720→70,810→71,800→71,250 pullbacks. 20EMA flat.
• 15m：Down / Downwave. Turning price 71,510; pullback high 72,720; sharp drop to 70,810 then 71,800 and 71,250. 20EMA downward; price below it; near 320EMA (around 71,000) providing support.
• Consistency：4H upmove vs 1H downmove (pullback) and 15m down, forming a short-term vs longer-term crossfire in a consolidation from the 72,720 high. The base strategy is to buy dips in the higher timeframes, but given the short-term breakdown and heavy upper resistance, both buying and selling should be balanced; await confirmation of 72,720 (up) or 70,810 (down).

OI and Gamma Analysis

OI is the mid-term target based on the previous business day (6/25) flow. It represents the arrival point and center of gravity tied to expiration, not used as a short-term trigger but as a weight for targets (T2) and key levels.

• Upper barrier = 72,000：Back-to-back rebounds brought price to 72,000 again, but the heavy 72,000 call position (the wall) remained intact. This level acts as a key resistance, and 72,720 temporarily broke above this wall before reversing.
• 73,000 calls are the rotation center：Today calls dominate (intraday calls roughly 5x puts; nighttime almost all calls). 73,000 calls stood out with large open interest, but most OI did not increase much (some outside-market blocks). New upside pressure is modest; rotations and reassignments dominate, so apparent strength should be viewed with caution.
• Puts accumulate on the downside：Puts clearly increased, including notable adds at 67,000, 70,000, and 68,000. While calls rise on a rebound, downside protection is still being bought below the current price. The table shows rotation without depth in open interest, implying underlying long positions are being added below and selling pressure above is not yet resolved.
• Center of gravity around 72,000, floor about 65,000：Direction uncertainty remains. Whether 67,000–70,000 puts act as a cushion against declines or as accelerators for drops remains unsettled until early next week’s long-position breakdowns are known.

Elliott Wave Perspective

Wave interpretation varies; we hold both the main and alternate counts and confirm phase transitions by close breaks at key levels.

Key Price Levels

• 73,760: 4H/1H retrace high, recent top. Final upside target.
• 73,180:EW15m down-wave retrace high node (long T3).
• 72,720: 15m retrace high / recent high (EW) end of five-wave up (15m) or confirmed main long.
• 72,310: Internal pullback low before 72,720 (break and pullback resistance / EW early long).
• 72,000: OI wall (reached but remains heavy on the upside).
• 71,800: 1H turning point / recent retrace high (rebound from 70,810). Trigger for breakout-following long.
• 71,510: 15m turning price.
• 71,250: Current price / night session close.
• 70,810: Recent low / most important immediate support (EW) ahead of short position start. Zone 1 upper limit.
• 70,320: Former down-4th-wave retrace high / pullback candidate (EW main short). Zone 1 lower limit.
• 69,800: Former long-line ahead of pullback; Zone 2 upper limit.
• 68,930: 68,930-origin up move start price; 1H/4H pullback low (EW structure negated). Zone 2 lower limit.
• 68,400: Former down-3 wave low; strong support (EW ultimate negation).
• 65,000: OI floor (mid-term puts).
• 62,350: 4H / daily structure low. Downside critical.

Trade Ideas

① Breakout Following (Long)

• Trigger: Break above 71,800 (1H turning / recent retrace high) on a 15m close (pullback finished, uptrend resumes).
• Precedent: After breakout, pullback toward breakout price vicinity or around a tilted 20MA on short timeframes (1m, 5m) to time the wave change (back-entry, breakout-price basis).
• Entry Condition: Recovery above 71,800 on a 1H close.
• Stop/Invalidation: Preceding leg fails below 71,400; main leg below 70,810.
• Targets: 72,310 (partial take + break-even), 72,720 (breakthrough to chase new highs toward 73,760).
• RR: T1 = 1.3, T2 = 2.3.
• EWRecovery of 71,800 is the upturn in the 1H down-move; recovery of 72,310 is EW early long; breakthrough 72,720 is EW main long.
• MFE Protection: exit at +200 to break-even or small profit; secure at least +100 with +300; protect early around the 72,000 OI wall / upper resistance band.

② Buy the Dip (Long)

• Standard: 70,810–70,320 (recent low and old down-4 waves retrace high = dip zone 1) or 69,800–68,930 (old long-line to 68,930 origin, 1H/4H pullback low = dip zone 2), confirm rebound with a 15m close.
• Precedent: Shallow dip around 70,600 (LC70,250), deep dip around 69,100 (LC68,830). Given 15m down and 1H downtrend, prioritize dip zone 1 and watch for rebound near rising/flat 20MA.
• Entry Condition: Recovery above 71,800 on a 1H close.
• Stop/Invalidation: Preceding leg below 70,250 (deep dip below 68,830); main leg below 68,930. Exit entirely if 68,930 breaks.
• Targets: 71,800 (partial take + break-even), 72,310.
• RR: T1 = 3.4, T2 = 4.9.
• EWAs long as 70,810 holds, expect an upward 5-wave (15m) with a Wave 2 pullback; keep 70,320–69,800 deep dip as a buying opportunity.
• MFE Protection: exit at +200 to break-even or small profit; +300 to lock in at least +100 or trail. Early protection due to the consolidation near 72,720 high.

③ Return Sell (Short)

• Standard: In the 72,000–72,310 retrace zone (break of pullback low up to 72,720 before it, etc.), confirm stall with a 15m close. If deeper retracement occurs, treat 72,720 (high) as test for re-entry in Zone 2.
• Precedent: Confirm stall in the pullback zone with a 15m close (guideline around 72,050). Downside is bearish with 4H uptrend as background, so focus on retrace buying in Zone 1 and avoid overreach.
• Entry Condition: Break below 70,810 on a 1H close (continue correction).
• Stop/Invalidation: Preceding leg recovers to 72,380; main leg recovers to 72,720. Strong invalidation occurs if 72,720 breaks on 1H close (leading to scenario ①).
• Targets: 70,810 (partial take + break-even), 70,320–69,800.
• RR: T1 = 3.8, T2 = 5.2.
• EWFrom 72,720 down-move, expect corrective wave A/C down and look for 70,810 hold as an EW-short confirmation; avoid overreach if not.
• MFE Protection: exit at +200 to break-even or small profit; +300 to lock at least +100 or trail. With 4H upmove, expect a strong lower-bounds support around 68,930; beware sharp reversals near lows.

④ Breakout Follow (Short)

• Trigger: Break below 70,810 (recent low and key immediate support) on a 15m close (continuation of correction from 72,720).
• Precedent: After breakdown, pullback toward breakout price vicinity or along a tilted 20MA on short timeframes (1m, 5m) to time wave change (back-entry, breakout-price basis).
• Entry Condition: Break below 70,320 on a 1H close (failed break of 4th-wave retrace high).
• Stop/Invalidation: Preceding leg recovers to 71,250; main leg recovers to 71,800. Fully exit if 72,310 is reached.
• Targets: 70,320 (partial take + break-even), 69,800 / 68,930.
• RR: T1 = 1.1, T2 = 2.3.
• EWBreak below 70,810 indicates a short ahead; break below 70,320 confirms main short; break below 68,930 negates the 15m up move from 68,930.
• MFE Protection: exit at +200 to break-even or small profit; +300 to lock at least +100 or trail. 4H upmove provides strong lower-support; watch for rapid rebounds near lows.

Current Actions

• Most important line 1: 71,800. A 15m close above this confirms the pullback end and triggers breakout-long (72,310→72,720).EWRecovery of 72,310 is EW early long; breakthrough of 72,720 is EW main long. If 71,800–72,310 stalls, consider selling on rallies.
• Most important line 2: 70,810. Maintain dips from 70,810–70,320 with a rebound as dip buying. If 70,810 breaks on a 15m close, expect continuation of the correction toward 70,320, with caution for a breakdown below 68,930 signaling a potential uptrend failure on a 15m basis.
• Consolidation of directional view: Dow, EW, and OI agree that 72,000–72,720 is the heavy upper bound and 70,810 is the critical support range for the pullback (watchful, balanced stance). Since the 4H upmove remains intact, downside protection should be prepared for a deeper contingency, while upside should respect the 72,000 wall and avoid overreach.

Entry price, trigger, and stop are set based on the chart shape at the close time (conversion prices, pullback lows, pullback highs on each timeframe). If the structure changes over time, unless higher-timeframe structure changes, adjust entry prices on the basis of shorter-timeframe wave-change prices (e.g., a short-term timeframe turning from a downwave to an upwave) and adopt the option that better reflects actual conditions compared to the initial value.

※This report is for information purposes and not investment advice; please make your own investment decisions.