NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: June 24, 2026, 12:30 JST (mid-session)

Current Price: 69,400 JPY (12:30 mid-session)

Target: Night session focus

Conclusion

From the high of 73,760 on 6/23, a rapid drop of about 3,000 yen occurred, followed by a move down to 68,400 during the night into early morning of 6/24. It then edged up to 69,620→70,320 and hovered around 69,400. The 4H chart shows a lag (no clear trend) and a down-wave, signaling a range transition caution after a large rise that caused both the 20 EMA and 20 SMA to break downward simultaneously. The 1H chart shows a descending/downward wave, but a pullback from 68,400 to 70,320 is attempting, and the 15m chart has shifted from a 68,400 bottom to an upward trend in advance (currently pulled back from 70,320). It is in the stage of testing a bottom after a sharp drop.

Breakout long by closing above 69,920–70,320 (from 71,200→72,000). If it rebounds at 69,200–69,000, consider buying the dip (as a return trade during the 4H down-wave). If 69,000 is breached on a 15m close, the uptrend structure is broken; if 68,400 (recent low) is breached on a 1H close, the second decline wave begins. Since the 4H shows a lag and a return phase in down-wave, avoid aggressive long or short positions and protect MFE early.

4H Analysis

The 4H chart shows a lag (no clear trend) and a down-wave. After rising from 62,350 to a high of 73,760, it fell about 3,000 yen and broke both the 20EMA and 20SMA (around 70,500–71,200) simultaneously, with both lines turning negative. This is the first major break of the rising phase, signaling a potential range transition; until the 73,760 is closed above again, the uptrend cannot be considered resumed.

Price at 69,330 sits above the 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent around 68,000) and the 200EMA (psychological level near 66,000), indicating the broader support remains below. The nearest defense line is the 68,870 push-low; if the 4H close clearly breaks below it, a downtrend is more likely. Upward resistance levels are 73,180 (turning point) and 73,760 (rebound high).

1H Analysis

The 1H chart shows a downward/down-trending wave. The turning price is 70,320, with no established support on the pullback low, and the rebound high at 73,760. After a plunge from 73,760 to 68,400, it retraced to 70,320 and is hovering near 69,460. The 20EMA is turning negative and price sits below it, though it remains above the 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent around 68,000).

If the price closes above 70,320 on a 1H basis, it is an early sign that the down-wave is turning into an up-move, making a rebound more likely. Conversely, if the 1H close breaks below 68,400, downside risk resumes.

15m Analysis

The 15m chart shows an uptrend and a down-wave. Turning price is 69,920, push-low 69,000, and pullback high not yet formed. After rising from 68,400 to 70,320, it pulled back to around 69,450. The 20EMA is flat to slightly positive, price sits above it, but below the 320EMA (roughly 71,300 on the 4H, equivalent to the 70-71k zone). This suggests a test of the upper or lower levels in the shorter time frame.

If the price closes above 69,920 on a 15m basis, the dip ends and the up-move resumes; if it closes below 69,000, the up-structure is in danger of breaking.

MTF State

• 4H: Lag / Down-wave. Turning 73,180, push-low 68,870, pullback high 73,760. A sharp drop from 73,760 breaks the 20EMA and 20SMA simultaneously (both negative), with price below both lines but above the 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent).
• 1H: Down / Down-wave. Turning 70,320, push-low not formed, pullback high 73,760. Rebound from 68,400 to 70,320. 20EMA negative, price above the 480EMA (around 68,000).
• 15m: Uptrend / Down-wave. Turning 69,920, push-low 69,000, no pullback high formed. From 68,400→70,320, it advanced, and is pulling back from 70,320. 20EMA flat to positive, price above it, below the 320EMA (~71,300) of the higher time frame.
• Consistency: 4H lag / down-wave; 1H down / down-wave; only 15m has advanced into an up-trend. Directions conflict. Since the higher-time-frame structure has just fractured, assess pullback selling (in line with 4H/1H) and dip-buying/break-following long (15m leading). Decide main trend by whether the 70,320 breakout or 69,000 breakdown occurs first.

OI & Gamma Analysis

OI is based on the prior business day (6/23) as a mid-term reference point. Since the GEX report is not provided this time, gamma strength values (gex_mag) are omitted; analysis is based on OI. OI reflects the mid-term target and center of gravity tied to expiration and is not used for short-term triggers, but for weighting targets (T2) and milestones.

• Center of gravity = 69,000 yen: New put positions accumulate thickly near 69,000–70,000, causing the center of gravity to align closely with the current price around 69,000. This is a heavy junction that coincides with the 15m push-low and the 4H push-low.
• Upper distant wall = 72,000 yen: Thick call positions cap the upside. The price drops about 3,000 yen below the current level, retreating toward a distant ceiling. Open interest has thinned somewhat but remains a distant resistance.
• Lower floor = 65,000/55,000: 65,000 is a level with thick new put positions added on 6/22 and remains largely supported. 55,000 provides a deeper floor.
• Tilt: Put selling vs call buying shows heavy hedging on the downside. PCR is relatively high, indicating some downside support, but there is substantial downside protection.
• Direction Uncertainty: It is not publicly determinable whether new put protection near the current price is bought by large players for hedging or sold (written). If the writer hedges, downside moves may be amplified; if buyers, overshoot may be mitigated. Final confirmation awaits next week's data; breaking 69,000 can increase volatility.

Important Prices

• 73,760 yen: 4H/1H pullback high and recent high. Final target to the upside.
• 73,180 yen: 4H turning price. Confirmation line for renewed 4H uptrend (far away).
• 72,000 yen: OI resistance wall (mid-term, calls, distant ceiling).
• 70,320 yen: 1H turning price and recent pullback high. Trigger for breakout-following long.
• 69,920 yen: 15m turning price. Trigger for upward regression in the 15m wave; phase T1.
• 69,400 yen: Current price (12:30 mid-session).
• 69,000 yen: 15m push-low and OI centroid (near-term pivot). Core short-term support.
• 68,870 yen: 4H push-low. Breach signals potential 4H downtrend.
• 68,400 yen: Most recent low (consolidation bottom). Breach signals downtrend wave 2.
• 68,000 yen: 4H 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent). Downward support band.
• 65,000 yen: OI floor (mid-term, puts).
• 62,350 yen: 4H/1H structural low. Most important downside level.

Trading Ideas

① Breakout Following Long

• Trigger: Break above 70,320 (1H turning price and near-term pullback high) on a 15m close.
• Premove: After the breakout, watch for a pullback toward the breakout price area or a quick test near the inclined 20MA on small time frames (back-entry, breakout price basis).
• Confirmation: Price recovers 70,320 on a 1H close.
• Stop/Invalidation: If the breakout is breached at 69,880 for the lead, or 69,000 for the main position.
• Targets: 71,200 (partial take + entry price), 72,000 (OI wall).
• Risk-Reward: T1 71,200 = 2.0; T2 72,000 = 3.8. Above 70,320 the area is thin and a clear breakout can accelerate hedge buybacks.
• MFE Protection: exit at +200 or +300 for trailing; protect early near 72,000 OI wall.

② Buy the Dip (Long)

• Standard: 69,200–69,000 (15m push-low and OI centroid) shallow dip Zone 1, or 68,870–68,400 (4H push-low to recent low) deeper dip Zone 2, confirm bounce with a 15m close.
• Premoves: Shallow target around 69,100 (LC 68,830) and deeper around 68,500 (LC 68,330). Since we are in a 4H down-wave, prioritize Zone 1 and enter long above the 15m/20MA with a upward/flat stance.
• Confirmation: 69,920 recovers on a 1H close.
• Stop/Invalidation: Lead below 68,830 (deep) or 68,400 for the main position.
• Targets: 69,920 (partial take + entry), 70,320–71,200.
• RR: T1 69,920 = 3.0; T2 70,320 = 4.5.
• MFE Protection: exit at +200 or +300 for trailing; protect early due to the dip-buying in a 4H down-wave. If T1 is reached at the trigger foot, skip.

③ Sell the Rally (Short)

• Standard: In Zone 1 69,920–70,320 (15m turning to 1H turning and pullback high), confirm stall with a 15m close (only for pullback play). For deeper pullbacks, stall in Zone 2 around 71,000–71,500 (downward 1H–4H20EMA band) and then trade with the trend.
• Premoves: Confirm stall of the pullback via 15m close (target 69,950 as a guide). Since 15m 20MA is flat to positive, avoid early entries above it.
• Confirmation: 69,000 breaks on a 1H close.
• Stop/Invalidation: Lead recovers to 70,370; main position recovers to 70,320. Strong invalidation occurs if price breaks 70,320 on 1H close, consider reversing to long (Case ①).
• Targets: 69,000 (partial take + entry), 68,400–68,000.
• RR: T1 69,000 = 2.3; T2 68,400 = 3.7.
• MFE Protection: exit at +200 or +300 for trailing; protect early in a rising 15m wave, avoid chasing; if T1 is reached at the trigger, skip.

④ Breakout Follow-Through (Short)

• Trigger: Break below 69,000 (15m push-low and OI centroid) on a 15m close (collapse of the 15m upward structure).
• Premoves: After the break, pullback toward breakout price area or incline near the 20MA on short time frames (back-entry, breakout price basis).
• Confirmation: Break below 68,400 on a 1H close (down-move wave 2).
• Stop/Invalidation: Lead recovers to 69,430; main recovers to 69,920. Full exit at 70,320.
• Targets: 68,400 (partial take + entry), 68,000 / 67,000 (final target is OI floor at 65,000).
• RR: T1 68,400 = 1.4; T2 68,000 = 2.3.
• MFE Protection: exit at +200 or +300 for trailing; protect early since 68,400, 68,870, 69,000 cluster as strong support area; do not let price breach 68,400 1H close; beware false breakouts in the low-price zone.

Current Actions

• Most important line 1: 69,920–70,320. If price closes above 70,320 on a 15m close, expect a rebound and pursue breakout long (71,200→72,000). If it stalls beforehand, consider selling on the rebound.
• Most important line 2: 69,000–68,400. Rebound from 69,200–69,000 is buying the dip; if 69,000 is broken on a 15m close, uptrend structure is broken; if 68,400 on a 1H close breaks, the second down wave begins.

Entry price, trigger, and stop are set based on chart shapes at the time of creation (turning prices, push-lows, pullback highs on each timeframe). If the structure changes over time, unless higher-timeframe structure changes, entries on lower timeframes (like 15m) will be adjusted using the practical price levels, choosing the approach that better reflects reality.

Note: This report is provided for information purposes only and is not investment advice. Trading decisions are your responsibility.