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“If I had bought, I should have” scenario

✅ The interest rate gap between Japan and the United States will not close: Even though the Bank of Japan raised rates (1%), if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, pressures from real interest rate differentials to sell the yen and buy the dollar (carry trades) will not stop.

✅ Limits of intervention: Verbal intervention by the Ministry of Finance is occurring, but even if actual funds are put into intervention, the price drop tends to be temporary, and it becomes a buying opportunity for dip buyers, pushing the price up toward 163 and 165.

“If I had not bought, …” scenario

✅ Direct hit from massive government intervention: In the high-161s to just before 162, it is a hyper-alert zone where a genuinely large “real undercover intervention” could come at any time. If a surprise drop of a few yen occurs, longs bought at high prices can be wiped out in an instant.

✅ Technically overheated: When oscillators are completely stuck at the ceiling, there is a risk that a sudden spike in profit-taking selling could blow in due to some trigger (such as a deterioration in US economic indicators).

Going long from here carries the risk of “grabbing a falling knife” or rather “clinging to the tip of a rocket.” If you enter, it is extremely difficult to decide whether to engage in a short-term battle in a chicken race or to wait for a large downward move from intervention and then buy after it settles.