Gold prices rebound but face resistance; focus on US GDP and core PCE
Gold price rebound but upside remains limited; focus shifts to US GDP and core PCE
Today's top news
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded on June 23, rising to as high as $4,179.
Although there was some buying back from last week's sharp drop, gold price continues to trade below key moving averages and has not yet shifted into a full-fledged uptrend.
While market sentiment is positive on progress in talks between the US and Iran, expectations of Fed rate hikes remain a headwind.
Why did it rebound?
There are two main rebound drivers this time.
1) Progress in US-Iran discussions leads to lower oil price
Reports indicate the US-Iran talks have started on a positive note.
Over the weekend, Iran hinted at blocking the Strait of Hormuz, but ultimately avoided it.
In response, WTI crude fell to
-2.40%
to $73.67.
The drop in oil prices eases inflationary pressures, which is a supportive factor for the gold market.
2) Autonomous rebound in gold prices
Last week, gold prices
rose to $4,330
↓
fell to $4,121
after a sharp, rapid sell-off, some investors bought back, causing a rebound.
However the rebound is modest, and it remains within a bear market range.
Rate hike expectations remain elevated
Markets still expect the Fed to raise rates.
According to Prime Terminal,
the probability of a rate hike at the July FOMC is about 45%
Furthermore,
- Bank of America
- Deutsche Bank
and other major financial institutions anticipate a September rate hike.
The market is pricing in additional rate hikes within 2026.
This week's key drivers
Important economic indicators are released this week.
Focus events
- S&P Global PMI flash
- Preliminary Q1 GDP
- Core PCE (Fed-preferred inflation gauge)
- Initial jobless claims
In particular, core PCE is closely watched as it has a big impact on the Fed’s policy, drawing market attention.
Technical analysis
Gold has rebound but remains in a downtrend.
The 200-day moving average sits around $4,469, well above the current price.
Upside targets
- $4,200
- $4,300
- $4,335–$4,350
- $4,469 (200-day MA)
Downside supports
$4,100
$4,000
$3,605
If $4,100 breaks, there is a risk of testing $4,000 again.
Summary
✅ US-Iran talks progress sends oil lower
✅ Gold rebounds to $4,179
✅ Rate hike expectations remain strong
✅ July FOMC rate hike probability around 45%
✅ This week’s main focus: GDP and core PCE
✅ $4,100 is an important defense line
Gold price rebounded from last week's drop, but market focus is already shifting to the next drivers.
Depending on the GDP and core PCE results released this week, Fed rate hike expectations could intensify further, making this a crucial week for gold.
