Today's Featured News

Gold (XAU/USD) continued to fall on June 19, dropping as low as $4,121.

Rising expectations for rate hikes after the FOMC, along with a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, have created a tough environment for the gold market.

As of writing, it hovered around $4,147, with a high possibility of a third consecutive weekly decline.

Why is it dropping?

There are three main factors behind this fall.

① FOMC more hawkish than expected

Although the policy rate was held steady at the recent FOMC,

the dot plot showed

9 out of 19 members foresee rate hikes within the year.

In the market,

the view that "high rates will persist" quickly strengthened.

Fed Chair Powell also stated that

“price stability is the top priority.”

and the market has strongly pushed back expectations for rate cuts.

② Dollar index at 13-month high

The dollar index (DXY) has

surpassed 101.00,

reaching its highest since May 2025.

Furthermore, reflecting rate hike expectations,

U.S. 2-year Treasury yields surged.

Non-yielding gold loses relative appeal, increasing selling pressure.

③ Goldman Sachs revises down forecast

What shocked the market was

Goldman Sachs lowering its price outlook for gold.

Previous forecast

$5,400

↓

New forecast

$4,900

was lowered.

Although still bullish overall, the downward revision has cooled market sentiment.

Mid-East tensions have improved, but effects are limited

With a potential peace accord between the U.S. and Iran,

the Strait of Hormuz may reopen.

Energy supply concerns have eased,

and inflationary pressures are easing.

However, the market is currently

placing more emphasis on

“Fed rate hikes”

than on Middle East developments.

Technical Analysis

Gold price has clearly broken below the 200-day moving average.

On the chart,

“lower lows”
“lower highs”

are continuing, indicating a downward trend is dominant.

Resistance targets

・$4,382

・$4,466 (200-day moving average)

・$4,500

Support levels

・$4,100

・$4,023 (YTD low)

・$4,000

・$3,886

The current key focal point is defending $4,100.

If this breaks, $4,000 becomes a realistic target.

Next Week’s Key Events

Next week features several major economic indicators.

Key considerations

・Q1 GDP (revised)

・Core PCE (Fed-preferred inflation indicator)

・PMI flash

・Labor market data

Results could further elevate expectations for additional rate hikes.

Summary

✅ Gold price continues to fall after FOMC hawkish stance

✅ Dollar index breaches 101

✅ Possibility of three straight weeks of declines

✅ Goldman Sachs lowers target to $4,900

✅ $4,100 is a critical battleground

✅ Next focus on GDP and Core PCE

The FOMC acted as a catalyst, and market sentiment shifted dramatically.

Going forward, will $4,100 hold, or head toward $4,000? Next week's economic indicators will be the next major inflection point.