No need to rush before the FOMC; gold price remains in the 4,300s

Today's Focus News

Gold (XAU/USD) on June 17 is trading around the 4,300 level.

Gold had risen to the 4,351 level at the start of the week, but today ahead of the FOMC policy announcement, profit-taking and position adjustments are prevailing.

However, the dollar remains under pressure due to the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, and there has not been a sharp drop.

Why is it falling?

There are three main factors driving the price movement this time.

① Position adjustments before the FOMC

The market's greatest focus is the FOMC to be announced in the early hours of the 18th Japan time.

This will be the first policy decision meeting under new FRB Chair Kevin Warsh.

Ahead of this important event,

・Profit-taking selling
・A wait-and-see stance
・Position reduction

are spreading, and gold prices are moving slightly softer.

② Dollar pressure eased by U.S.-Iran peace agreement

The United States and Iran have reached a framework for a ceasefire.

The main points are

・Ceasefire for 60 days
・Reopening of the Hormuz Strait
・Start of Iran nuclear development talks

as well as.

This reduces concerns about crude supply and weakens dollar-buying demand.

The dollar index (DXY) remains heavy, providing a support factor for gold prices.

③ Rate-hike expectations remain

In the market

There is roughly a 60% probability baked in for a 0.25% rate hike in December this year.

Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and expectations for rate cuts have waned.

Thus, gold prices have not seen aggressive buying.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices remain in a recovery phase within a long-term downtrend.

They are currently approaching an important resistance band.

Upside Targets

・4,400 dollars

・4,445–4,450 dollars
(200-day moving average)

・4,560 dollars
(61.8% retracement)

Downside Support

・4,227 dollars

・4,022 dollars
(Recent low)

・4,000 dollars

Whether 4,450 dollars can be decisively broken will be a mid-term trend reversal signal.

Today's Notable Events

Early hours of the 18th Japan time

FOMC Policy Announcement

Key Points

・Whether the policy rate is held

・Dot plot (rate-hike outlook)

・Economic outlook (SEP)

・Chair Warsh's press conference

What he says could move the gold market significantly.

Summary

✅ Market in a wait-and-see mood before the FOMC

✅ Gold price maintaining around 4,300 dollars

✅ U.S.-Iran peace agreement weighing on the dollar

✅ Rate-hike expectations remain for the year

✅ The main focal point is Chairman Warsh's first press conference

Tonight's FOMC will be an important event determining the market direction for the coming months. Will gold break through 4,450 dollars, or will it test the 4,000 level again? Market attention is on this.

Until next time on the [Ikura's Market Report].