Today's Featured News

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded sharply on Friday, June 15, rising to as high as $4,351.

Last week, gold prices had fallen toward around $4,023, but as expectations of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran spread through the market, rapid buying resumed.

At first glance it may seem that “war ending = gold selling,” but the market appears to be focusing on other factors.

Why did it rise?

There were three main factors driving the rise this time.

① Dollar weakness pushed gold higher

Expectations for Middle East stability rose due to the U.S.-Iran agreement,

and the dollar, which had been bought as a safe asset, was sold,

• Dollar Index (DXY)
• 99.57 (▲0.23%)

and fell to99.57to99.57 (▲0.23%)until it dropped to 99.57 (▲0.23%).Because gold is a dollar-denominated asset, a weaker dollar makes it relatively cheaper to buy.

The biggest factor behind this gold rally is this dollar weakness.

② Oil plunge eases rate-hike concerns

With the agreement, expectations for reopening the Strait of Hormuz increased,

and WTI crude oil fell to

• in the 84-dollar range
  ↓
• around 80.5 dollars

a sharp drop.

Oil weakness leads to lower inflation,

and markets have become more inclined to think

“the Fed may not raise rates further.”

The easing of rate-hike concerns provided tailwinds for gold.

③ Buying back from oversold levels

Gold prices fell to a six-month low of $4,023 last week.

RSI also dropped to oversold levels.

Thus,

• dollar weakness
• oil weakness
• receding rate-hike expectations

overlapped, resulting in a large short-covering (buyback).

Technical analysis

Gold price has recovered above $4,300 and shifted into a short-term rebound trend.

Resistance targets

• $4,400
• $4,454 (200-day moving average)
• $4,500

Support levels

• $4,300
• $4,250
• $4,200
• $4,023

Whether the price can break through $4,400 is the biggest highlight for this week.

This week's notable events

The market is watching the upcoming FOMC meeting this week.

In particular, this will be the first policy briefing from the new Fed Chair, so

• interest rate outlook
• future rate-hike path
• inflation assessment

are attracting market attention.

Depending on the statements, gold prices could move significantly.

Summary

✅ U.S.-Iran agreement reduces Middle East risk

✅ Oil price plunge eases inflation concerns

✅ Dollar weakness pushes gold higher

✅ Gold rallies to around $4,350

✅ FOMC is the key event this week

From last week's sharp selloff mood, markets are shifting toward risk-on. However, there is strong resistance around $4,400, so depending on the FOMC outcome, there could be another period of large price movements.