The warning from President Trump was true! Signing of the Iran agreement and future FX strategy

Yesterday, the Middle East news that shook the early-morning FX market with a “double slap.”

After President Trump said, “I will sign in another 2-3 hours,” did the signing really take place? The follow-up news has arrived.

To be concise, it has been confirmed that both countries actually signed.

However, from here the market enters a second stage beyond the panic, not something simple, and I’ll explain it clearly from a trader’s perspective.

✅ News recap: what was decided and what is suspicious?

According to Asahi Shimbun on the morning of the 15th, the situation has progressed as follows.

✅ The signing actually occurred

  On the U.S. side (President Trump and Vice President Pence) and the Iran side (Speaker of Parliament Ghalibaf), they actually signed a memorandum toward ending the hostilities. First, the worst-case scenario (full-scale war) has been averted, giving a sense of relief.

✅ Trump boasts: “Completely open by the 19th!”

  While visiting France for the summit, Trump touted to reporters that it is a “document extremely favorable to the United States.” He boldly claimed that the Hormuz Strait, a key point for oil, will be “completely open after the 19th.”

However, the contents could still be gray (ambiguous). A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for the 19th (Friday), but the full contents have not been disclosed yet. Newspapers warn that, because each side has very different positions, the content may be ambiguously convenient for both sides, which could be seen as sly.

? How will the currency market move from here (USD/JPY and cross yen)?

Panic-driven wild swings will ease for now, and from here the market will move on “the digestion of facts” and expectations for Friday.

?① The baseline is “safe yen selling (risk-on)”

Since the worst-case scenario (the Middle East sinking into chaos) has been averted for now, the safe-haven asset yen will be more likely to be sold. Technically, USD/JPY and cross-yen are likely to gradually anchor upward (yen weakness).

?② Caution about a “yen strength” brake from lower crude oil prices

If the Hormuz Strait truly opens, crude oil prices will fall. This will reduce U.S. inflationary pressure, strengthening expectations for rate cuts by the U.S., and in the medium-to-long term will curb dollar strength (weakening the dollar’s upside momentum).

⚠️ Survival Eye for this week: Prepare for the “fact-selling” on the 19th

From here, the most important move is the timing of the formal signing on the 19th (Friday) and the disclosure of the content.

There is a market adage: “buy on rumors, sell on facts.”

Right now, the yen is weakening on the expectation that peace will prevail, but when the contents are disclosed on the 19th,

? “The contents are sparse and lack practicality,”

? “Iran may not be convinced after all,”

these concerns, if they appear even a little, could cause the market to suddenly lose confidence, and a strong “yen rally (risk-off)” could strike as a rollback.

While watching indicators (RSI, stochastics, etc.), remember that the latter half of this week is a countdown toward the formal announcement on the 19th, and adjust positions so they do not become overly heavy.