Dollar-Yen 160 Yen Offensive and Defensive Battle | Why Didn't It Rise? For Now, Just Consider Buying the Dip
The USD/JPY is, as always, in the middle of the rising channel. What to do is simple.
Regarding the USD/JPY last week, there has been no major change in the overall outlook.
As usualaround the center of the rising channelwe have been moving.
When the market looks like this,“Do you have any special plan?”is a common question.
But unfortunately, no (laughs).
In fact, the more you win in the market, the simpler your actions tend to be.
The current strategy is mainlyshort-term pullback buying.
Just keep repeating this.
So, where do we buy?
As I mentioned, pullbacks based on a fixed VWAP.
※For those who cannot use fixed VWAP, using 20MA or similar substitutes is fine.
Why there?
The reason is simple.
Because that is the area hedge funds’ algorithms target.
As a result, liquidity pools tend to form there.
The market throughout history responds to “where participants gather.”
Last week, liquidity pools around 159.80–159.93 provided solid support for buying.
↓ Using the Liquidity Pools indicator to buy on a pullback in liquidity pools
Looking at the chart, it may seem difficult, but essentially
“They are looking for price ranges that big players want.”
That’s all there is to it.
The Gravity of the 160 yen options
That said, Friday was a major SQ.
Moreover, there were about 1.5 billion dollars in options centered at 160 yen.
Therefore,
“Alright! Break through 160 and go full throttle!”
was not the outcome, was it?
The market is an interesting thing; sometimes the options market has more influence than economic indicators.
Even if it looks calm on the surface, behind the scenes a huge tug-of-war was taking place.
Dollar futures: more dollar selling ahead
Meanwhile, looking at dollar futures, dollar-selling positions are accumulating further.
If this continues, by July the USD/JPY may head toward the +2σ direction of the Bollinger bands.
Of course it won’t progress in a straight line.
While forming pullbacks, shaking out market participants, and still aiming higher.
That is the scenario I am considering for now.
Next week is event-filled
Next week also has a packed schedule of important events.
Of course to watch is
not the second Giant (Jayan) 15th anniversary live...
but the Bank of Japan policy announcement (lol)
This time, with Governor Ueda still hospitalized, the announcement may come without the governor present.
Usually at the press conferences there is a mix of tension and responsibility in the expressions of the presenters.
If this time they resume rate hikes and USD/JPY rises even further...
Everyone might crave at least one antacid.
Next week’s economic calendar
- June 16 (Mon)Bank of Japan policy announcement; Australia policy rate
- June 17 (Tue)US FOMC policy rate
- June 18 (Thu)US major SQ; UK policy rate; Philadelphia Fed index
- June 19 (Fri)US holiday (Juneteenth); Hong Kong holiday
Hot topics
- A memorandum toward a ceasefire between the US and Iran looks likely (remote signing)
- SpaceX goes public (IPO price range from $135 to $150)
- Anthropic files for IPO (aiming for fall)
Recently, AI, space, and geopolitics have been dominant market themes.
All of them move the market.
But for us traders, the important thing is not to critique the news.
What matters is how we act upon the news.
A Chinese woman who connected Claude and TradingView
Recently, there was a story about a young Chinese woman who connected Claude with TradingView and successfully built a trading system.
Technically interesting news.
However, personally I wonder,
“Is that allowed by terms of service?”
That’s my impression (laugh).
AI is convenient.
But if you chase convenience too far, sometimes the terms of service will scream first.
Don’t be ignorant or pretend to know things or blather about trivia
A little final note.
To win in FX consistently, of course you must not be ignorant.
Likewise, it’s dangerous to pretend to know things with half-baked knowledge.
Collect information that is sufficient and necessary.
And that information should not be a passing trend, but something that holds up over the long term.
This is very important.
On the other hand, you don’t need to become an economy analyst or a central bank watcher.
Memorizing the career histories of all FOMC members won’t make you better at trading.
Being able to recite each country’s GDP statistics by heart won’t make you better at entries.
Information is a weapon, but carrying too much of it becomes baggage.
What matters is,
how you act in the current market
that’s all.
Profit doesn’t come from the amount of knowledge you possess.
It comes from repeated, proper actions.
So next week as well, let’s not overcomplicate the market, and face the chart in front of us.