【Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Recognition/Notes_20260614】

June 14th, Sunday.

Hello.

The sky is cloudy.
The sky looks rather dreary.

There is no sunshine, but
the temperature is rising, so
I would like to be cautious with my health management.

Now then,
overall weekly volatility is small
and choosing trading currency pairs alone
is quite challenging.

Entering timing is hard to gauge, but
putting that aside,
I plan to stay relaxed.

This Friday the U.S. market is closed,
so it will probably be until Thursday.



Well then, let's confirm.
This is the number of closes on the daily chart.
　　

【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 18th / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 14th / 6
Weekly volatility: 89 pips
HPC 1st cycle: 67th / 26 or
HPC 2nd cycle: 5th / 5
4HC 6th or 1st 28th / 25

I interpret as such.

Eventually I expect the U.S. dollar to strengthen,
and the center zone of the 4HC may
signal future highs if the daily chart shifts.


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20260614_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/GsSEu7jI8Ww
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 22nd
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 20th / 15 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 6th / 6
Weekly volatility: 104 pips
HPC 2nd or Daily chart 1st, 28th / 27
4HC 3rd cycle: 7th / 4

I view it as such.

With 4HC turning, an uptrend is seen.
However, some intervention seems likely,
so caution is needed.

Although it’s a gradual rise,
weekly volatility is small making trading difficult.

This week likely will see movement from the Bank of Japan and the FOMC.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 18th / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 11th / 5
Weekly volatility: 152 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 20th / 6
4HC 2nd cycle, 28th / 22

I view it this way.

4HC turning and an uptrend.
However, the long-term moving average is downward,
and in order to close above it with a bullish candle
the pound’s strength would be insufficient.

Therefore I am considering a bearish outlook.


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 23rd / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 18th / 10
Weekly volatility: 158 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 28th / 23
4HC 2nd cycle: 71st / 39

I view it this way.

The starting point of 4HC is likely around 183.98,
so a need for a bullish outlook may arise.

However, when EUR/USD moves lower,
it tends to have influence.


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 23rd / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 17th / 11
Weekly volatility: 230 pips
HPC 2nd: 32nd / 27
4HC 3rd cycle: 29th / 15

I view it this way.

The Half Primary Cycle (HPC) essence is a rush of bearish candles.


For a large bearish candle, the bearish candle of GBP/USD would need to act as support.


I’m feeling it might be coming soon.


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 15th / 15
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 17th / 16
Weekly volatility: 216 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 32nd / 24
4HC 3rd cycle: 8th / 7

I view it this way.

AUD/JPY is in a delicate development.
A break below the 4HC 2nd cycle starting point would herald a large bearish candle.


Then the bearish candle for AUD/USD would have a large impact.


A stock market crash, bearish AUD/USD
and
a scenario where AUD/JPY breaks the starting point?

Just a speculation. (laugh)

****************************
20260614_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/GsSEu7jI8Ww
*****************************


  
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US10Y 4.483 +0.54%
DJI 51,207 dollars +353 dollars
US500 +0.54%
WTI 82.635 dollars
BRN 88.76 dollars
Nikkei 225 66,019 yen +1,802 yen
　
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