【Dollar/Yen & Gold】Friday's notable drop, but it's not the real deal yet｜Waiting for the real drop after returning to 160.450

The USD/JPY dropped quite a bit on Friday.

“Did it finally come?” Some may have thought that.

But I still think not. This isn’t the entrance to a full-blown drop yet. I’ll lay it out step by step.

A fairly sizable drop, but a fairly sizable rebound

On Friday, the USD/JPY plunged from around 160.50 to the low 159s in one stroke. In terms of range, it was certainly sizable.

But what to watch is what happened next. After the drop, it rebounded by a similarly sizable amount, returning to the 160 level.

“Even when it drops, it’s bought back eventually.” This market character has not changed yet.

If you jump on and short here at the point where a drop begins, you’ll be caught in this rebound. It’s not a good time to react hastily to a single large drop.

I still don’t see a full-blown drop coming

To be honest. I don’t think a full-blown drop has started with this move.

The reason is simple. As long as there’s such a straightforward buyback, the sellers don’t yet hold full control.

My main scenario is this: from here, it will return to around 160.450 again. I expect a movement aiming to test the high side once more.

I want the real drop to come after that bounce

And now, here’s the honest part.

After it comes back to around 160.450—that’s when I hope the real drop will come.

To push it back up to the high range once, lure the buyers in, and then crumble. That’s the cleanest way for a drop to start.

Sell into the subsequent rebound high. Don’t jump on now; wait for that “rebound.” That’s my current stance.

Gold is the inverse correlation; it too looks set to pause briefly

One more thing I want to monitor is gold.

Right now, gold (XAUUSD) is moving in the opposite direction to the USD/JPY. When the USD/JPY dropped, gold was bought aggressively, climbing from around 4080 to the 4200s.

That is, a rebound in USD/JPY tends to cause gold to pull back for a while.

In my view, gold will also pause briefly here. If the USD/JPY returns to 160.450, gold is likely to move oppositely and face a renewed upper limit once more.

Current strategy

If you’re holding for a long time, this is the basic stance I’m using.

・Don’t jump on the Friday drop. Wait for a rebound
・Once you confirm a return to about 160.450, consider selling on the rebound
・Expect the full-blown drop after that, and don’t chase in a hurry
・Gold is inverse. If the USD/JPY rebounds, expect a temporary pause in gold
・When the direction isn’t clear, don’t force positions

Reacting to one big spike and jumping on is the most costly. Wait for the move back to retrace, then act.

That is the market’s directional sense for now. After that, it’s about where you actually enter and where you take profits. I trade daily with a stance that I can decide without hesitation.

If I turned that “method” into a signal, is this it?

[There is nothing else needed besides this]

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