【Iku. Market Report】This Week's Review ★

This Week's News

This week's gold market has been an extremely volatile week.

In the first half of the week, driven by worsening Middle East tensions and rising crude oil prices, inflation concerns and expectations of a Fed rate hike intensified, and gold plummeted to a six-month low of 4,023 dollars.

However, in the latter half, expectations of a US-Iran agreement surfaced. The possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz was anticipated, market sentiment improved, and gold rebounded to the 4,200-dollar range.

As of writing, it is around 4,216 dollars.

Why did it move?

Three main factors influenced this price movement.

① Rising expectations of a Fed rate hike

Oil prices rose due to worsening Middle East tensions, pushing inflationary pressures higher.

US CPI rose 4.2% year over year, and PPI rose 6.5% year over year, fueling market expectations of a rate hike within the year.

Higher interest rates are a headwind for gold, which does not yield interest.

② Stronger US dollar

Gold has traditionally been a safe-haven asset, but this time funds flowed into the US dollar.

The dollar index (DXY) rose toward the 100 level, putting pressure on gold prices.

③ US-Iran agreement expectations

In the latter part of the week, market attention shifted to ceasefire negotiations.

If an agreement is reached, it could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about energy prices.

This led to a rebound in gold as well.

This Week's Direction

This week,

・Worsening Middle East tensions

・Rising oil prices

・Inflation concerns

・Expectations of Fed rate hikes

caused gold to sell off sharply.

On the other hand, in the latter half, there were also moments of rebound as ceasefire expectations and inflation concerns cooled.

In the short term, it has entered a rebound phase, but in the medium to long term, a cautious view is still necessary.

Technical Analysis

Gold briefly fell to 4,023 dollars, but then recovered to the 4,200-dollar range.

RSI has moved up from the oversold region past 30, indicating a short-term rebound.

However, in the medium to long term, a bearish trend remains in place.

Resistance Levels

4,250 dollars

4,300 dollars

4,450 dollars (200-day moving average)

Support Levels

4,200 dollars

4,150 dollars

4,023 dollars (this week's low)

4,000 dollars

Next week, whether it can hold 4,200 dollars will be a key point.

Ikura.'s Perspective

This week was a week in which the market direction changed dramatically due to news.

It wasn't simply “sell on a plunge, buy on a rebound”; participants' expectations collided strongly.

Personally, I am watching how the market reacts around 4,250 to 4,300 dollars.

At present, I view it as a rebound phase, but I would like to proceed cautiously until it recovers the 200-day moving average.

Next Week's Points of Attention

・First monetary policy briefing by the new Fed Chair

・Economic Outlook (SEP)

・U.S. Retail Sales

Results of these events could significantly change the direction of gold prices.