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The One Common Point Among People Who Continue to Trade Against the Market
That is, they think the market is wrong.
I’ve noticed this after trading for many years. Among traders who consistently go against the market, there is one characteristic that is shared without exception.
That is,they trade on the premise that “their own forecast is correct, and the market is wrong.”.
“It should go up from here, so why is it going down?” “This level should not be broken.” “It will definitely come back.” If these words come to mind, you are already fighting the market. And traders who fight the market always lose, because there is no such thing as “impossible” in the market.
“Forecast” and “Analysis” are Different Things
What many traders confuse is the difference between “forecast” and “analysis.”
Forecasts are judgments based on a desire of how you want things to turn out. “This area will absolutely rebound,” “This line will definitely hold” — these are all forecasts. If the market doesn’t move as predicted, you feel it’s a deception or something is wrong.
Analysis is reading the facts that the chart shows at the present moment. “In H4, the low is being cut, the downtrend continues, and we are in a retracement phase.” This is a verification of the facts. Regardless of which way the market moves, it can be accepted as fact.
Forecast creates a battle with the market, while analysis creates harmony with the market.Successful traders do not make forecasts. They simply ride the market trend.