NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: June 12, 2026 06:03 JST / Night Session

Current Price: 66,540 JPY / Day Session

1. Trend Table

4H

Uptrend / Upward wave. Break-even price 62,350, pulling low 63,350, return high 66,110 (X = close price breakout). Rebounded sharply from 62,350, closed above 66,110, turning the trend from down to up. 20EMA and 20SMA are turning from down to up, and price is well above 120EMA (daily equivalent around 64,360) and 200EMA (63,550 / psychological level).

 

1H

Uptrend / Upward wave. Break price 64,400, pullback low 62,350, return high 64,840 (X = close price breakout). Broke above 64,840 with close, turning trend to up, rising to 66,540 by close. 20EMA, 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent), and 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent around 64,400) are all rising and price sits above them.

 

15m

Uptrend / Upward wave. Break price 66,050, pullback low 64,520, return high --- (not formed yet due to new high chase). After breaking above 64,840, price surged to around 66,650 and closed near 66,540. 20EMA, 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent), and 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 64,800) are all rising and price sits above them.

 

2. Important Price Zones

68,800 JPY

4H previous top. Final objective zone to the upside.

67,620 / 67,170 JPY

Pullback highs / key resistance on the way down. Upper resistance.

66,930 JPY

Key level on the way down. T1 for long following a breakout.

66,650 JPY

Night high. Trigger line for chasing new highs / breakout following a breakout (long).

66,540 JPY

Current price / Night close price.

66,110 JPY

4H old return high (already broken on close). Starting point of up turn / support turned.

66,050 JPY

15m break price (recent pullback low). Short-term pivotal line.

65,910 JPY / 65,580 JPY

Old 1H node / 4H node. Pullback candidate (within the rising 20MA zone).

65,090 JPY

Old 4H turning point / pivot. Medium pullback candidate.

64,840 JPY

Old 1H return high (closed above) = support turned. Deep pullback candidate.

64,520 JPY / 64,400 JPY

15m pullback low / 1H turning price. Breaks warn of uptrend structure collapse.

62,350 JPY

Night / most recent low. 4H / 1H pullback low (turning). Downside critical.

3. Verification of Previous Trade Idea

Verification Target: Night Session

① Breakout follow-through (Long) — Validated (main position) / T2 Achieved

After night session started, broke 64,840 on 15m close to 65,040. While waiting for a back-entry, 64,840 was broken again to 65,010, but T1 (65,090) was near, so the front-run was deferred (as designed for main position). After confirming 1H close recovery at 65,090, entered main position at 65,370. T2 (65,580–65,910) achieved. Close reached 66,540 with strong favorable movement.

② Pullback buy (Long) — Valid / Main position formed, T2 achieved

Pulled back from the high of 65,200 to the upper end of pullback zone (64,080, 64,010 zone vicinity) and rebounded. After 1H close above 64,400 and breaking 64,690, entered main position. T2 (64,840–65,090) achieved. Later extended to 66,540.

③ Return selling (Short) — Deferred / Not formed

Retracement within price range occurred, but 1H 20EMA was rising, so shorting on a counter-trend above 20MA was avoided per rule. A non-trend return selling was avoided.

④ Breakout follow-through (Short) — Not formed

62 to 64,010 not broken on 15m close, so no trigger.

4. 4H Analysis

4H rebounded sharply from 62,350 low and closed above 66,110 return high, turning trend from down to up. Wave is also an up wave. 20EMA and 20SMA are turning up. Price is well above 120EMA (daily equivalent around 64,360) and 200EMA (63,550 / psychological level).

On the upside, the retrace highs around 66,930, 67,170, 67,620, and the old top at 68,800 provide resistance. On the downside, 66,110 (old return high = new support), 65,580, and 63,350 pullback zone provide support. Unless 62,350 is broken, the big picture is bullish, but due to a rapid rise of over 4,000, be cautious of overheating and a pullback in the high price region.

5. 1H Analysis

1H closed above 64,840 after breaking 62,350, turning the trend to up and continuing the upwave. 20EMA, 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent), and 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent) are all rising and price sits above them. Recent pullback low (turning point) is 64,400.

Expect continued上涨 supported by 65,910 and 65,580. If 66,050 (15m turning price) is broken on 1H close and 64,400 is broken, be alert for a breakdown of the upwave.

6. 15m Analysis

15m shows a rising wave chasing new highs, with no clear retrace high yet (turning 66,050, pullback low 64,520). 20EMA, 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent), and 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 64,800) are all rising and price sits above them.

In the short term, 66,050 is the nearest turning line. Maintaining this with a shallow pullback signals a buy-the-dip; closing above 66,650 (night high) on 15m opens up a breakout-following buy trigger. Since the 20EMA is rising and price has moved far above it, protect entries with an MFE and avoid aggressive pullbacks. Do not chase with deep pullbacks.

7. Conclusion

In conclusion, during the day session, price surged from 62,350 to 66,540 during the night, with all timeframes 4H / 1H / 15m aligned in rising trends and rising waves (4H at 66,110 return high, 1H broke 64,840 return high on close and turned to rising). Given this strong upmove, prefer pullback buying as a baseline.

Maintaining 66,050 (15m turning) on shallow pullbacks is a pullback-buy signal; a close above 66,650 (night high) on 15m is a breakout-following buy. Note that 66,540 is only after a night surge of about +2,200, so protect early with break-even or small profit levels. Return selling should be treated as an opposite move within higher timeframe uptrend and limited to pullbacks, not chasing. Do not overextend on pullbacks.

Overall coherence: all three timeframes 4H / 1H / 15m are in uptrends and rising waves, with direction fully aligned. The base approach is higher-timeframe priority pullback buys and breakout-long, while pullback selling is postponed until 66,050 break and pullback stall is confirmed, avoiding chasing above the rising 20MA.

8. Trade Ideas

① Breakout Follow-through (Long)

• Trigger: close above 66,650 (night high) on 15m (new high pursuit).
• Leading: after breakout, await pullback near breakout price or near a positively sloped 20MA (watch for pullback buy) with timing in shorter timeframes.
• Position entry condition: 66,930 recovered on 1H close.
• Stop / invalidation: leading below 66,300; main below 66,050.
• Targets: 66,930 (partial take + entry price), 67,170–67,620.
• RR: leading 66,650 / LC 66,300 (risk 350). T1 +280 = RR0.8, T2 (67,170) +520 = RR1.5. Since T1 is less than 1, raise activation criteria and treat mainly as main position.
• MFE protection: exit at break-even or small profit with +200, raise to +300 for at least +100 or trailing. In the high price zone of a sharp overnight rise, protect early.

② Buy-the-dip (Long)

• Standard: 66,050–65,910 (15m turning / nearest pivot), or 65,580–65,090 (4H / old 4H pivot / rising 20MA band) pullback, confirm with 15m close.
• Leading: rebound confirmed by 15m close in pullback zone (early target around 65,950 shallow pullback; deep pullback near 65,300).
• Position entry condition: 66,540 recovered on 1H close.
• Stop / invalidation: leading below 65,780 (deep pullback below 64,980), main below 65,090. Full exit below 64,520.
• Targets: 66,540 (partial take + entry), 66,930–67,170.
• RR: leading 65,950 / LC 65,780 (risk 170). T1 +590 = RR 3.5, T2 (66,930) +980 = RR 5.8.
• MFE protection: exit at break-even or small profit with +200; protect up to +300 for at least +100 or trailing. As all higher timeframes are rising, this is a straightforward trend-following dip-buy; prioritize shallow pullbacks and protect early. Entry should occur above rising 20MA.

③ Return selling (Short)

• Standard: after breaking 66,050 (15m turning) on 15m close, pull back to 66,300–66,540 and confirm stall by 15m close (pullback trade only).
• Leading: stall confirmed in return zone by 15m close (target around 66,400).
• Position entry condition: 65,580 broken on 1H close.
• Stop / invalidation: leading recovers to 66,700, main recovers to 66,650. Strong invalidation occurs at 66,650 (night high recovery).
• Targets: 65,910–65,580 (partial take + entry), 65,090.
• RR: leading 66,400 / LC 66,700 (risk 300) base, T1 (65,910) +490 = RR 1.6, T2 (65,090) +1,310 = RR 4.4.
• MFE protection: exit at break-even or small profit with +200; protect with +300 for at least +100 or trailing. As higher timeframes are all rising, this is a mean-reversion limited; avoid chasing, and avoid deep pullbacks; if a confirmed trigger is reached at the level of target 1, consider skipping.

④ Breakout Follow-through (Short)

• Trigger: break below 64,520 (15m pullback low) on 15m close (breakdown of rising wave structure).
• Leading: after break, wait for pullback near breakout price or near a sloped 20MA (watch for return selling) with timing in short terms (back-entry around 64,520 vicinity, breakout price as baseline).
• Position entry condition: 64,400 breached on 1H close.
• Stop / invalidation: leading recovers to 65,090, main recovers to 65,580. Full exit at 65,910.
• Targets: 64,000–63,910 (partial take + entry), 63,550 / 63,200.
• RR: leading 64,520 / LC 65,090 (risk 570) base, T1 (63,910) +610 = RR 1.1, T2 (63,550) +970 = RR 1.7.
• MFE protection: exit at break-even or small profit with +200; protect with +300 for at least +100 or trailing. Since all higher timeframes are rising, expect limited downside until 64,520 break; be wary of false break and quick reversal from high-price zones.

9. Current Actions

• Most important line 1: 66,050 — 15m turning price / recent pullback low. Maintain + shallow pullback for continued pullback buying (trend following); 65,910 also supports. If 15m close breaks, expect short-term correction and next pullback buy candidate in the 65,580–65,090 rising 20MA band.
• Most important line 2: 66,650 — Night high. If 15m close above, pursue new highs with breakout-following long (66,930 → 67,170). Downside risk worsens if break below 64,840 (old return high = support turned) or 64,520 pullback low.

10. Cautions

• All three timeframes are rising, but due to the sharp rise above 4,000, protect pullback buys and breakout longs with early MFE protection.
• Return selling is a reversal in higher timeframes; limit to pullbacks and wait until 66,050 breaks and return stall is confirmed. Avoid quick entries above rising 20MA.
• ④ indicates deep contingency: do not allow severe down move until 64,520 break; pullbacks from high price areas may be false breaks or rapid rebounds; be cautious.
• If a trigger point is reached and target 1 is already achieved at the confirming candle, skip the entry.

11. About This Report

This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.

Note: This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Investment decisions are the responsibility of the reader.