NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-06-11 (Night Session)
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
Downtrend / down-move. Break price 65,090, retracement high 66,110, pullback low---. Fell from the 68,800 high, pierced the pullback low area after making 66,110, then recovered to 64,320 to close. 20EMA and 20SMA are downward; price sits below them, above 120EMA (roughly 64,200 on the daily) and above 200EMA (63,550 / psychological level).
Down / up-move. Break price 62,350, retracement high 64,840, pullback low---. Rebounded from 62,350 to 64,320; 1H wave shifted from down to up. 20EMA turned up and closed above it, but remained below 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 64,700). Price stayed below 80EMA.
Range / up-move. Break price 64,010, retracement high 64,840, pullback low---. Reversed from 62,350 to 64,190 to 63,200 to 64,400, and closed at 64,320 with 64,010 as the most recent pullback low. 20EMA and 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent) are rising, price above them but below 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent ~64,800).
2. Important Price Levels
3. Verification of Previous Trade Idea
Subject: Day session
From 62,350 rebound, closed above 63,560 on 15m. Retraced briefly to 63,450, then broke again and closed above 20MA, entering early. T1 achieved (63,910–64,000). Rebound extended to 64,190; MFE +300+; break-even / trailing protection.
Early fall to 62,370 and drop below 62,800 invalidated the initial dip-buy condition. Later price rose; pressure from 64,190 bounce to 63,200 higher low confirmed 1H up-move; breaking above 20MA at 63,650 triggered entry. T2 achieved (63,910–64,000). Higher low from 62,350 to 63,200 supported the front-running position as expected.
The retracement zone (63,560–63,910) surged above in a rally; unable to see the stall pattern within the 15m close, so no initial entry. Direction is trend-following but no sell-on-rally setup formed.
Open below the target entry price of 63,140; back-entry near 63,140 on a pullback confirmed, short entry at 62,940 on a 5-min bearish close. T1 reached at 62,800. T2 (62,000/61,800) not reached; exited on trailing stop up to intraday low 62,350. MFE +590 (62,940 → 62,350).
4. 4H Analysis
The 4H chart remains in a downtrend with continued downside movement. From the 68,800 high, it fell to a pullback high of 66,110, then breached the pullback low area to 62,350. It has since rebounded to 64,320, but the 20EMA and 20SMA are pointing downward and price remains below them, not exiting the retracement range.
On the downside, 4H 120EMA (around 64,200) and 200EMA (63,550 / psychological level) are watched as support. On the upside, the key resistance remains at 66,110 retracement high and 65,090 break price; until those are cleared with a close, the broader bias remains with selling. A clear close below 62,350 would accelerate the downside.
5. 1H Analysis
The 1H is in a downtrend, but rebounded from 62,350 to 64,320, turning the move from down to up. 20EMA turned up and closed above it, price stays above 20EMA and 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent around 64,250). However, it remains below 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 64,700), and the 64,840 retracement high remains unrecovered, within the lower-timeframe pullback range.
If 64,700–64,840 (80EMA / retracement high) is closed above, the 1H pullback becomes more pronounced, and a recovery toward 65,090 (4H conversion) becomes a major reversal candidate. Conversely, a close below 64,010 on 1H would undermine the upmove and risk a renewed decline toward 62,350.
6. 15m Analysis
The 15m chart shows the sequence 62,350→64,190→63,200→64,400, maintaining an up-move with 64,010 as the most recent pullback low (break price). 20EMA and 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent) rise above price, but price remains below 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 64,800).
In the short term, 64,010 is a pivot. A close below it would trigger a return to a down-move. On the upside, the 64,840 retracement high – the 320EMA belt – is nearby; stall here would imply selling into the rally, while a close above 64,840 would trigger a breakout-buy. As long as the 20EMA remains upward-sloped, favor shallow pullbacks and avoid aggressive early selling above the rising 20MA.
7. Conclusion
In conclusion, the night session should be viewed as a recovery from the 4H and 1H downtrends, with the 1H and 15m moving up from the 62,350 level. Price is approaching 64,840 (1H/15m retracement high = 4H 20EMA band); a close above 64,840 would suggest break-following (long), and a close above 65,090 (4H conversion) would indicate a broader reversal from down to up.
If 64,010 is violated on a 15m close, the up-move would fail and the downside could resume toward 64,700–64,840 for pullback resistance; a close above 64,840 would tilt short-term to break-following longs. With 4H and 1H in downtrends, longs should be treated as pullback entries with early MFE protection; protect quickly.
Overall coherence shows 4H in selling pressure, while 1H and 15m show bounce phases that intersect with higher- and lower-timeframe directions. Prioritize higher-timeframe reversals and break-following shorts; only when 64,840 or 65,090 closes above would the buy side align.
8. Trade Ideas
- Trigger: clear above 64,840 (1H / 15m retracement high; 4H 20EMA belt) on a 15m close.
- Leading: after the breakout, pullback toward the breakout price vicinity or toward the steep rising 20MA (watch as a dip-buy) with timing on smaller timeframes; back-entry near 64,840 as a reference.
- Positioning: recover above 65,090 on a 1H close.
- Stop/Invalidation: front-run at or below 64,500; core position below 64,320.
- Targets: 65,090 (partial profit + cost basis), 65,580–65,910.
- RR: front-run 64,840 / LC 64,500 (risk 340); T1 +250 = RR 0.7; T2 (65,580) +740 = RR 2.2. If T1 is less than 1, raise trigger and focus on core position.
- MFE protection: +200 for cost basis or small profit close, +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. Since the 4H is in downtrend, protect early.
- Standard: 64,010–63,910 (15m conversion / most recent retracement high), or 63,410–63,200 (4H pullback low / intraday pullback zone near 63,550 as 200EMA) with a confirmation of rebound on 15m close.
- Leading: confirm rebound in the dip-zone with 15m close (reference 63,950; deeper pullback 63,250).
- Positioning: recover above 64,400 on 1H close.
- Stop/Invalidation: front-run below 63,780 (deep pullback below 63,140); core below 63,560. If price returns to 62,350, exit completely.
- Targets: 64,400 (partial profit + cost basis), 64,840–65,090.
- RR: front-run 63,950 / LC 63,780 (risk 170); T1 +450 = RR 2.6; T2 (64,840) +890 = RR 5.2.
- MFE protection: +200 for cost basis or small profit stop; +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. In 4H/1H downtrend, limit to strong supports like 200EMA band with clear rebound; wait for up-move above rising 20MA before entering aggressively. If a definitive breakout occurs and target 1 already reached, skip further entries.
- Standard: 64,700–64,840 (4H 20EMA belt = 15m 320EMA / 1H 80EMA / 1H-15m retracement high) to cap upside; confirm stall on 15m close. If shallow stall, 64,500 near the daily 20EMA band is also a candidate, but the main belt has higher reliability.
- Leading: confirm stall in the retracement zone with 15m close (reference 64,750; back-entry).
- Positioning: break below 64,010 on 1H close.
- Stop/Invalidation: front-run recovers to 64,910; core recovers to 65,090. Strong invalidation at 65,090 (4H conversion recovery).
- Targets: 64,010 (partial profit + cost basis), 63,410–63,200 / 62,350.
- RR: front-run 64,750 / LC 64,910 (risk 160); T1 +740 = RR 4.6; T2 (63,200) +1,550 = RR 9.7.
- MFE protection: +200 for cost basis or small profit stop; +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. In areas of rising 20EMA on 15m and 1H, wait for breakout to the 4H 20EMA belt with stall confirmation; avoid chasing until there is upward turn above rising 20MA. If a definitive breakout occurs and target 1 is already reached, skip.
- Trigger: break below 64,010 (15m transform / nearest pullback low) on a 15m close.
- Leading: after the break, pull back toward breakout price vicinity or toward a rising 20MA belt as a pullback (watch for a quick entry) with back-entry guidance around 64,010.
- Positioning: break below 63,200 on 1H close.
- Stop/Invalidation: price recovers to 64,330; core recovers to 64,840. Full exit at 64,840 (recovery of pullback high).
- Targets: 63,550–63,410 (4H 200EMA / 4H pullback low; partial profit + cost basis), 63,200 / 62,350.
- RR: front-run 64,010 / LC 64,330 (risk 320); T1 (63,410) +600 = RR 1.9; T2 (62,350) +1,660 = RR 5.2.
- MFE protection: +200 for cost basis or small profit stop; +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. Protect early near price lows. If entry conditions are already satisfied with target 1 reached, skip.
9. Current Actions
- Most critical Line 1: 64,010 yen — 15m transformation / nearest pullback low. If maintained and 64,700–64,840 stalls, sell on retracement (trend-following); if 15m close breaks below, anticipate further decline to 63,410→63,200→62,350 (Break-following Short).
- Most critical Line 2: 64,840 yen — 1H / 15m retracement high / 4H 20EMA belt. A close above would accelerate short-term upside (break-following long, targeting 65,090). Until then, the downtrend persists and selling on retracements is preferred, awaiting 65,090 close above to align.
10. Cautions
- 4H and 1H are in a downtrend; buying should be limited to pullback trades with quick MFE protection.
- When 15m and 1H 20EMA are rising, avoid aggressive early selling above the rising 20MA; wait for the 4H 20EMA belt reach around 64,700–64,840 and stall confirmation.
- A break below 64,010 is a sign of renewed decline; note nearby 63,910 and the support at 200EMA (63,550) and intraday pullback low 63,200.
- If a decisive breakout occurs and target 1 is already reached at the confirmation foot, treat as no-entry for this occasion like in idea ③.
11. About this Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using the Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.
Note: This report is for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice; investment decisions are the reader's responsibility.