Leaving somehow
If you can't even state the direction of the trend, close the chart
If you can’t even answer whether the current market is trending up or down, you are not yet qualified to enter.
When you ask someone who has just started trading, “Which trend is XAUUSD in now?” you often hear, “It’s going up, but it might be going down… it’s difficult.”
This isn’t humility.It means you haven’t established situational awareness.
The direction of a trend is not judged by feeling. Based on Dow Theory, by confirming higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows, the answer will always be clear. It is a choice among “uptrend,” “downtrend,” or “range.” “I don’t know” does not exist. If you don’t know, it’s because you don’t know how to view it.
And entering a trade when you don’t know the trend isthe same as betting heads or tails by flipping a coin.It is not a method or analysis. It is just gambling.
“Somewhat bullish” is not an uptrend
Many traders judge trends by a vague feeling. “Recently it’s gone up, so bullish,” or “It dropped significantly, so bearish.” This is not trend identification; it is impression.
The definition of a trend in Dow Theory is simple.
- Uptrend: Both highs and lows are rising
- Downtrend: Both highs and lows are falling
- Range: Highs and lows move within a confined range
Based on this definition, check the most recent highs and lows on the chart. Is the current high higher than the previous high? Is the current low higher than the previous low? By confirming these two points, the direction of the trend is determined.
Between “I feel it’s rising somehow” and “both highs and lows are rising, and the uptrend is continuing,” the quality of evidence is completely different.The former is impression, the latter is fact.The former is impression, the latter is fact.
The problem of different trends on different timeframes
A common confusion in trend judgment is when the direction appears different on different timeframes. The daily chart shows an uptrend, but on the H1 it looks like a downtrend. Which should you trust?
The answer is clear:the trend on the higher timeframe is the foundation.If the daily chart is in an uptrend, interpret the H1 downtrend as a pullback. Deciding to sell based on H1 alone would be a counter-trend trade against the daily flow.
Each timeframe has its own role. The daily and H4 are timeframes for “deciding direction.” The H1 and M15 are for “timing.” Without understanding this division of roles, you will make scattered judgments on each timeframe and remain uncertain.
・Daily: Confirm the major trend direction. Grasp the weekly flow
・H4: Confirm medium-term trend and current phase (pullbacks, retracements, ranges)
・H1: Confirm Dow turn in entry direction. Judge a reversal from a pullback
・M15～M5: Narrow down entry timing. Look for the starting point of the N-wave
What to start doing today
Every morning when you open the chart, decide on one first action. It is“to verbalize the trend direction of today’s daily and H4 charts.”.
It can be in a notebook or notes app. Write a sentence like: “Daily: uptrend continues. H4: pullback forming. Today’s bias: bullish.” That’s all.
Just cultivating this habit will dramatically change your entry decisions. If the direction is clear, you can ignore signals in the opposite direction. You can wait without rushing during pullbacks. You won’t hesitate after entering.
If you can’t even state the trend direction, close the chart. A chart is in usable state only when today’s direction is decided. Only after the direction is decided do you have the qualification to seek entries.