AI Trend Vision Development Note 6｜150,000 yen becomes over 150 million yen! A 10-year no-bankruptcy compounding backtest has emerged
Hello, this is Tsumo.
This article is the sixth development note for AITrendVision.
In the previous development note 5, I wrote about fixed lot operation for AITrendVision.
Initial margin: 1,000 USD.
EURUSD focus.
About 10 years.
No defaults.
First of all, this is already quite large at this point.
A long-term backtest passing without defaults using a averaging (martingale) EA.
This alone is not easy.
However, the previous article was strictly about fixed-lot operation.
In other words, even if funds increase, do not raise the lot size.
Even if profits accumulate, the trading size remains the same.
This is to test the durability of the EA itself.
This time, it’s the next step.
What if AITrendVision were operated compoundingly?
The result was quite intense.
But I’ll say this first.
This is not an article to dream.
It is an article to observe both the power of compounding and the dangers of compounding.
If you’re interested in AITrendVision deployment or MTP integration, please also take a look here.
- MTP: Master [Free]
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/79103?via=users
- MTP: Slave [Paid]
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/79106?via=users
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## Previously, we looked at durability with fixed lots
First, I’ll整理 the previous positioning.
What was seen in Development Note 5 was fixed-lot operation.
Even if funds increase, do not raise the lot size.
Even if profits increase, do not change the trade size.
It was to test the fundamental stamina of the EA.
This check is quite important.
Because if the EA itself is weak and you apply compounding, it becomes merely a speed booster.
Win times increase.
But when it collapses, it collapses fast.
Compounding is not magic.
It’s an accelerator.
If the EA is strong, growth accelerates.
If the EA is weak, the breakdown accelerates.
Therefore, we first looked at fixed-lot.
There, it did not default for about 10 years.
This is the premise for proceeding to this compounding test.
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## This time, we verified with compounding
In this test, we confirmed an operation where the lot size increases with capital growth.
In simple terms,
When funds increase, the trade size also increases.
That is the idea.
With fixed-lot, profits increase but trade size does not change.
On the other hand, with compounding, the more profits you make, the bigger the next profit becomes.
In return, the risk also increases.
This is something you must never forget.
Compounding is not only strong when it goes up.
It is also strong when it goes down.
Lot size increases.
Unrealized losses also increase.
Needed margin also increases.
Drawdown amount also increases.
Therefore, when evaluating compounding, you must not look only at profit amounts.
Look at how it rises and how it sinks in equal measure.
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## Conditions for the backtest of compounding
The validation in this test uses EURUSD on a 5-minute chart.
The period is from June 1, 2016 to June 7, 2026.
About 10 years.
Initial margin is 1,000 USD.
Converted to Japanese yen, assuming 150 yen per dollar, about 150,000 yen.
We examined what happens when you compoundingly increase the lot from this amount.
That is what we confirmed.
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## Verification results
The main results this time are as follows.