Is a dollar-yen long position in the 160 yen range really "expensive"? Mental control considered from data with a 93% win rate

1. Introduction: A dollar-yen above 160 yen—honestly, aren’t you afraid to buy?

The dollar-yen has broken through the 160 yen level. “From here, going long (buying) is way too expensive and scary…,” “I don’t know when a crash will occur.” It’s natural for traders to feel this way.
However, is that sense of “high” really correct? Perhaps it’s a bias anchored to past prices. This time, based on recent real trading data, we summarize how to conquer “fear” with objective facts.

2. Recent trading 사례: Why I could stay consistent amid fear

Previous trade (5end of month〜6beginning of month):
Longs of 143 lots at 159.22 yen ⇒ take profit at 159.622 yen (profit: +574,860 yen)
This trade (6月8日):
Long 152 lots at 160.002 yen (currently holding)

After securing profits in the upper 159 yen range, I entered at the 160 yen round number with a strong size of “152 lots” without flinching.
It’s exactly in the moments when one feels “afraid” that staying true to one’s rules and trading consistently becomes the deciding factor in success.

3. Rebutting “too high” with 93.3% win-rate back data

The most effective way to counter psychological fear is to rely on objective numbers (data).
Now, looking at the signals optimized using the 30-minute chart’s “Psychological Line (basic)” for the period 2026/03/16〜2026/06/09, a surprising fact emerges.

Total gainedpips
Win rate:93.3%
Average P/L: +53.5 pips

Trading rules:
Buy: Psychological Line 20 at “35 or below” (oversold)
Sell: Psychological Line 16 at “70 or above” (overbought)

【What the data shows】
No matter how high the overall price sits in the 160s, as long as the market is in a strong uptrend, aiming for temporary “oversold (pullback)” buys is overwhelmingly valid (win rate over 90%). It shows the importance of trusting the market’s sentiment and signals, rather than the absolute price.

4. Conclusion: The essence of fear is not the price height but anchoring

The brain’s trap (anchoring effect):
We’re used to looking at past charts, so we automatically anchor “160 yen = high.” Yet in a relentlessly rising uptrend, if there’s little resistance above, the price can continue to push higher.

Next actions plan:
1. Believe in the signals, not the “price” (let the data with 93% win rate be your ally)
2. If you’re really scared, fine-tune your lot size (to maintain psychological calm, slightly reduce position size)

In fact, since just after entry, the market has been steadily moving toward a profit around 160.198 yen.
What matters is not keeping a fear diary of “it’s high and scary,” but maintaining a professional, calm stance of “the data says go, so I follow.”