【Dollar/Yen】 Fully recovered the depreciation from intervention, to the 160 yen level — but cannot envisage further upside from here. Expect a pullback on the daily chart.

Dollar/yen has moved into the 160 yen level.

Even though it dropped sharply once due to intervention, it ended up being bought back steadily from there, and it has fully recovered. On the contrary, it is now surpassing 160 yen and updating the high.

“It’s strong,” you might think.

But I can’t imagine it will simply rise from here. I will write in order.

Meaning of the full retracement after the intervention drop

First, let me整理 the flow up to now.

With the intervention as a trigger, it pushed down to the 155 yen area with a sharp lower wick. Normally, it wouldn’t be surprising if it turned bearish from here.

But in reality, it cleanly rebounded from there and fully retraced. It means the market was one where there are still buyers even after a decline.

It has been crawling up, staying above the short-term moving averages. If you judge by the chart shape alone, it certainly looks like an uptrend.

But I can’t描け up from here

To be honest. Now that it’s above 160 yen, I can’t描け an image of it climbing further from here.

Because it has risen gradually, the upper level isn’t light either. A market that has been moving on a single track up will need a breather somewhere.

From a chart perspective, it is likely to pause once. Rather than buying into highs in the high-price area, waiting for a pullback makes more sense.

“It’s retraced fully and is making new highs, so long is fine,” is true in the short term. But jumping in now carries the risk of catching a top.

I expect a pullback on the daily chart

My main scenario is as follows.

From here, there will be a pullback on the daily chart. Not a small short-term dip, but a somewhat larger adjustment.

A move to expel what has been built up gradually. Where will that pullback stop, and from where will buying resume? I see this as the phase to watch now.

Rather than rushing to chase the high, wait for a dip. This is my current stance.

The big picture hasn’t changed

As I’ve written many times, I’ll say it again.

The heaviness at the high level around 160 yen. The existence of the high-rate window (148–149 yen). BoJ rate-hike posture and the expectation of U.S. rate cuts.

This arrangement remains unchanged whether there was an intervention drop or a full retracement afterward.

Even if there is a temporary upside move, the overall trend points toward a stronger yen. Therefore, I won’t jump into long positions at the current high levels.

Current strategy

If you hold for a long time, this is my basic stance.

・Avoid easy long positions in the high-yen-range around 160
・Wait for a pullback and determine where the pullback stabilizes
・Even when aiming to buy on dips, ensure the support is working first
・Even if the move attempts to go higher, don’t chase out of impatience
・If the direction isn’t clear, don’t force a position

Jumping into high-priced areas in a hurry will cause the most damage. It’s better to move after the pullback comes.

Summary

・The drop from intervention is fully retraced, rising into the 160 yen range. The pattern shows an uptrend
・However, I can’t picture simply climbing higher from here
・Chart-wise, a pullback is expected for now
・Main scenario is a daily-chart pullback developing
・The big-picture yen-strength setup remains unchanged. Avoid jumping in at highs

This is the direction of the market for now. After that, it’s about where to enter and where to take profit in practice. I trade every day in a form that allows me to decide that without hesitation.

To turn that “shape” into a signal, this is it.

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