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カタナ
06/06/2026 17:47
Release： 06/06/2026 17:47
Update： 06/06/2026 18:36
カタナ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
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NK225 futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-06-08 (for the Tokyo–London session)

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: June 7, 2026 06:17 JST / Night Session
Current Value: 63,820 JPY / For Day Trading Session

1. Trend Table

4H

Downtrend / Declining wave. Turning price 67,890, pullback low 65,580 (broke), pullback high 68,800. Decline from 68,800 top continued; during night session, 4H pullback low 65,580 was breached at the close, dropping to 63,500, closing at 63,820. The trend shifted from up to down. Under 20EMA/20SMA (66,500–67,300) and 4H 120MA (about 64,400) break, with 200MA (about 63,000) serving as the next support. Slope is downward.

 

1H

Downtrend / Declining wave. Turning price 66,080, pullback high 67,170, pullback low not yet confirmed. From 67,170 pullback high, it fell sharply to 63,500 and closed at 63,820. Trading below 20EMA/20SMA with a downward slope.

 

15m

Downtrend / Declining wave. Turning price 64,310, pullback high 67,170, pullback low 66,490 breached and continuing. Fell from 67,170 to 63,500, closed at 63,820. 20EMA downward.

 

2. Important Price Zones

68,800 JPY
All-time high / 4H pullback high. The most important upper bound after the downtrend reversal.
67,890 JPY
4H turning price. Break above 4H close indicates return from downwave to upwave.
67,170 JPY
1H / 15m pullback high. Current upper limit of the recent pullback.
66,080 JPY
1H turning price. Break above 1H close signals return to upward trend.
65,580 JPY
Old 4H pullback low. Breached at night close and turned into resistance. The most important line negating the 4H downtrend (recovery enabling a strong rebound).
65,000 JPY
Psychological level / pullback resistance.
64,400 JPY
4H 120MA breached. Becomes pullback resistance.
64,310 JPY
15m turning price. Break above 15m close indicates short-term uptrend return. Short-term upside trigger.
63,910 JPY
Old 4H pullback low (upturn point at end of May). Breach wiped out most of the upside; turns into key resistance.
63,820 JPY
Night close / current price.
63,500 JPY
Night low. Close breach signals continued decline; the most important downside trigger.
63,000 JPY
4H 200MA. Next major support.
62,860 JPY / 62,000 JPY / 61,800 JPY
Old lower structure nodes. Downside target after breaking below 63,000.

3. Verification of Previous Trade Idea

Target: Night Session

③ Pullback selling type | Valid / Realized / T1 & T2 reached (Major mid-level)

Standard condition “stalled in the pullback high zone of 66,930–67,190 and confirmed stall at 15m close” is met. Night session capped higher at 67,170 (within pullback zone 66,930–67,190) and stalled, triggering at 67,100. Subsequently fell to 63,500, and the main position closed below 66,320 at 1H close, with Targets 1 (66,320) and 2 (65,890–65,580) all reached and broken. From the 67,100 level, the low of 63,500 produced MFE +3,600 with protection at +200/ +300, shifting to trailing. The risk-cut at 67,410 (for the lead) and 67,890 (for the main position) were not hit, capturing a large drop as planned, a successful scenario.

④ Break pullback low breach type | Valid / Realized / T1 & T2 reached

Firing condition “break 66,320 on 15m close” was met and triggered. Breach of 65,890 1H close confirms main position, Targets 1 (65,890) & 2 (65,580–65,000) all reached and breached to 63,500. From lead starting at 66,320 to low 63,500 yields MFE +2,820 with +200/+300 protection, moving to trailing. Similar accuracy to the pullback selling type.

② Buy the dip type | Invalid / Stop loss

Standard condition “rebound within 65,890–65,580 confirmed by 15m close” failed; price broke down and dropped to 63,500. Lead stop at 65,490, main stop below 65,580, invalidated and exited. Breach of 65,580 close confirms downtrend and completely invalidates the dip-buy idea.

① Breakout-follow type | Invalid / Stop loss

Trigger was “back-entry after break above 66,930 on 15m close.” Night session rose to 67,170 after breaking 66,930, but did not reach Target 1 at 67,190 and reversed. Even if the lead filled, a drop below 66,530 invalidates and triggers stop loss. This rebound was not a new breakout but a triggering shape of the pullback selling type (③).