【GOLD】Why did this week’s win rate drop into the 70% range? The turmoil in the employment statistics and a weekend test to ally with the fundamentals
【Trial for Independence】Deliberately Silent Employment Statistics Week.
Reasons for Falling Win Rate and the Truth of 100% Win Rate After the Indicators
Hello to everyone reading the blog. This is FX-Skull.
An eventful week has come to an end. This week was the once-a-month mega event,“U.S. Employment Statistics”of the week.
Why didn’t I give prior warnings this week?
As many of you may have noticed, this week I did not issue warnings or information about indicators.“Deliberately”I chose not to.
The reason is so that users yourselves seek out informationand become “independent traders” rather than waiting for others’ instructions.
Important indicators, including employment statistics, arrive at a fixed time every month. Please refer to my past articles and daily posts, check the economic indicator calendar yourself, and develop a mindset to challenge the markets.
If you chase the high after the waves, you stay undefeated
Avoid the irrational spikes at the indicator release and review the yesterday’s signal results after the waves have settled and the trend becomes clear, i.e., after the employment stats release.
- Normal Mode:8 wins 0 lossesWin rate 100%!
- Stable Mode:7 wins 0 lossesWin rate 100%!
How about that? By avoiding dangerous time windows with your own judgment,“focusing only on high-advantage (ease of the system) situations”you should be able to make this level of consistently undefeated trades.
Weekend Homework: Why did your performance drop?
However, looking at this week’s total test results reveals the reality. Let’s compare with last week’s data that had no major indicators.
▼ This week (with employment statistics)
- Stable: 40 wins 11 losses (win rate 78.4%)
- Normal: 53 wins 18 losses (win rate 74.6%)
▼ Last week (no major indicators)
- Stable: 44 wins 4 losses (win rate 91.7%)
- Normal: 51 wins 7 losses (win rate 87.9%)
Obviously clear. This week isn’t bad by any means, but compared to last week’s overwhelming stability of over 90%, performance has clearly fallen and the number of losses has risen.
■ A Question to Everyone
Weekend is the time to thoroughly examine“Why did performance drop this week?”.
Even if you only look at chart patterns (technical) the answer won’t be found. The moves unique to the pre-indicator-release watch market, spreads widening and volatility immediately after the release, etc.,“fundamental factors”how they negatively affected the signals should be checked against the charts.
Not only technicals, but fundamentals also
strive to become someone who truly incorporates trading into your own judgment.
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