[USDJPY] May Review and June Strategy | Reached 160, hitting a ceiling; I am viewing with a short-biased stance

June has begun. Looking back at last month for USD/JPY and how I see this month.

To start with the conclusion. This month I view the market as favorable to shorts.

May Review | The intervention drop was ultimately a “full retracement”

May for USD/JPY was a straightforward month.

There was a sharp drop sparked by intervention. A sharp lower wick pushing toward the 155 yen level.

But what happened after that? Buyers slowly stepped in, and almost all of it was retraced. It has now returned to a level around 160 yen.

What this implies is one thing: “Even when it falls, there are still people who want to buy” in this market.

Declines occur. But they don’t last. May was a repeating pattern of that.

Current position | 160 yen mark, a heavy top in a high-price range

Although it retraced fully, USD/JPY isn’t simply strong across the board right now.

After touching 160 yen, it has faced multiple ceilings. The momentum of the candles doesn’t sustain upward as strongly. It’s above the moving averages, but not rising rapidly.

You might think, “Since it retraced fully, I should just go long from here.”

In the short term, yes. But you must not forget that this is a high-price range with heavy resistance.

June View | Headwinds at 160 yen, pullback selling favored

This month I already see a stall around this area near 160 yen.

Rather than breaking out above 160 yen quickly, it’s more likely to be contained here and pushed lower by selling on rallies.

Basically a range to downside bias. I’m watching for selling on short-term rallies in the high-price zone.

Of course, if it clearly breaks above 160 yen with momentum, I’ll adapt. But the main scenario is that it’s capped around 160 yen and tests lower.

The big picture hasn’t changed

As I’ve written many times, I’ll say it again.

Triple top at 160 yen. The existence of the High Window (148–149 yen). The Bank of Japan’s tightening posture and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.

This setup remains the same whether it dropped on May’s intervention or retraced afterward.

There can be short-term fluctuations up and down, but the long-term trend is yen strength. Therefore I view rallies as selling opportunities — i.e., short-leaning.

June Strategy

If you’re holding for a longer period, my basic stance is this.

・Consider Shorts near 160 yen up to a breakout above that level
・Being in the high-price zone after a full retracement, avoid easy long entry
・Only consider a short-term long if there is a clear breakout above 160 yen with momentum
・If it tests lower, book some profits at key levels
・When the direction isn’t clear, don’t force a position

Buying aggressively in the high zone tends to be the most costly. Wait for a clear pattern before entering.

Summary

・May’s drop due to intervention ended in a full retracement — a market that didn’t sustain the downside
・Now it’s at the upper end after hitting 160 yen, with heavy topside pressure
・June is expected to stall around 160 yen, with pullback selling favored
・The overarching yen-strength scenario remains unchanged
・Basic stance is short-leaning. Avoid impulsive long entries

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