Is China’s real estate bubble burst the next〇〇 shock?!!
GogoJang President Hayakawa and my dialogue VTR can be viewed here
The latest dialogue VTR with President Hayakawa filmed last week should be up this week.
Good morning, everyone.
Yesterday there was a sharp drop due to Trump’s taunts? and a full reversal thereafter.
USD/JPY MT4 daily and 5-minute charts
The red circle marks the counter-trend point, but I didn’t intend to be in front of the monitor thinking this would happen, so including the spread, the initial position entry tends to be late.In times like these, please
in practice.
Personally, I prefer entering on a counter-trend basis, but since it’s hedging, it doesn’t matter much.
Next is just to decide how wide to take profits...
On the daily chart, Fibonacci; on the 5-minute chart, a billion-trend line shows a solid rebound.
What to look at is up to individuals, but it’s easy to understand, and anyone can do it anytime.
I think this kind of method makes trading and verification easier.
Changing the topic, a discussion about China’s economy.
Don’t you feel that recent China news hasn’t been on TV much?
The atmosphere of Xi Jinping when Trump visited China
Didn’t it seem somewhat fragile?
Well, like Japan, China is a country that would be in serious trouble if the strait were blocked.
That said, the Johnny Duo incident exposed the old Japanese media’s biased judgments, and Japan’s media are, in a sense, controlled by foreign capital.
In simple terms, the sponsor of a certain program is a Japanese company, but a major shareholder of that Japanese company is foreign.
This is what I think might be happening, as a complete amateur.
Right now in China I think there is a real estate bubble burst underway, but I don’t feel the media is reporting it.
Because after all, they are program sponsors...
There are articles saying the Chinese real estate bubble won’t happen, citing lessons from Japan’s bubble collapse, but is that true?
Quite doubtful, indeed.
Generally, the scheme is
Real estate bubble collapse occurs
↓
Financial institutions move to raise funds but cannot recover
↓
Financial institutions go bankrupt from loan defaults
↓
Chaos ensues and the bubble collapses
That’s the flow I think.
If you want to gather information quickly, I feel you can somewhat understand by checking the reinsurance companies’ movements.
Just a feeling, though.
TV hasn’t aired it, but I think China’s economy is in a pretty bad state.
Naturally foreign capital has invested, and money from around the world was flowing into China, so if a bubble collapses, well...
It wouldn’t be just Lehman-like; it would be a much bigger affair.
I feel eventually results will come out.
USD/JPY MT4 monthly chart
The left blue circle is aftershock of Lehman shock USD/JPY.
It’s a chart that fell nearly 40 yen over about four years.
And in October 2012 the Liberal Democratic Party took over, and what is known as Abenomics began.
The white star is the monthly chart billion-trade rain.
Ideal for swing and position trading.
Currently around the right blue circle, but it feels similar to the moves back during Lehman.
Is it more about the range of movement than the width?
Ultimately, since it will be driven by the United States, the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping must have had some meaning.
There may have been some collusion, who knows ^^
How to face the chart in front of you...
Do you have the means or method to face it?
I think this is a required skill for traders who survive.
Thank you again for today.