NK225 futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-06-02 06:21
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
Recession / Downward wave. Turning price: 67,400↑, Support at decline: 66,530, No retracement high.
Upward / Upward wave. Turning price: 66,530↓, Support at decline: 66,530.
Upward / Upward wave. Turning price: 66,200↓, Support at decline: 63,910.
2. Key Price Ranges
3. 4H Analysis
The 4H chart maintains an upward structure with 63,910 as the support low. After breaking above last high 66,510, price extended into the 67,000s, keeping the bullish bias on higher timeframes.
However, recently it surged to 67,620 and then faced slight resistance. Although the 4H remains in an uptrend, short-term charts may witness pullbacks around the highs, so during the day, waiting for a dip can improve risk-reward.
4. 1H Analysis
The 1H keeps an uptrend with 66,530 as a potential support floor. After breaking 67,240, price rose to 67,620, continuing the upside momentum.
Currently, the price stands at 67,260, having pulled back from the 67,620 high. As long as 66,530 is held, the 1H uptrend remains intact, but until 67,400 is recovered, a short-term 15m downtrend remains, so cautious approach is advised for intraday chasing.
5. 15m Analysis
The 15m chart failed at 67,620 high and has moved into a lull / downward wave. The turning price is 67,400↑, and if it can be recovered by the 15m close, we would reassess a transition back to an uptrend from the downtrend.
During intraday, it is crucial whether price pulls back to 67,150〜66,840 or 66,660〜66,530 to find support. If 66,530 fails on a close, consider a short-term pullback targeting 66,240〜66,070 within the 1H uptrend context.
6. Conclusion
The 4H and 1H maintain an uptrend structure, while the 15m has switched to a downtrend from the 67,620 high. Higher timeframes are biased to buying, but the short term is in a pullback waiting phase.
During the day, prioritize the pullback-buy setup as the main idea. If price stabilizes 67,150〜66,840 or 66,660〜66,530 and recovers 67,400, a further upside move may be observed. If 67,620 is clearly broken to the upside, switch to the breakout-following setup as a secondary main idea.
7. Verification of Previous Trade Idea
Subject: Night Session
Confirmed. Entry moved to target. Price recovered 67,240 at the 15m close, and 67,300 at the 1H close. Subsequently rose to 67,620 high, reaching Target 1 at 67,500. Target 2 at 67,800–68,000 not reached. Based on the advance entry of 67,240, MFE was +380, with +300 protection activated. Thereafter, maintain at least +100 or use trailing.
Confirmed. In the pullback zone 66,660〜66,240, price pulled to 66,530, then recovered to 67,150 and 67,240. Reached Target 1 at 67,240–67,300 and Target 2 at 67,500–67,800 also reached toward 67,500. MFE at entry of 67,150 was +470 with +300 protection activated.
Partially confirmed. In the retracement area 67,260 (pullback zone) price was capped briefly, pushing toward 66,660, but the low stayed at 66,530 and did not reach Target 1 66,240–66,070. MFE remained under +200, protection not triggered. After 67,240 recovered, the retrace-sell idea was terminated.
Partially confirmed. Fell below 66,660 triggering a potential breakdown of the 15m upmove, but the low did not go beyond 66,530 and Target 1 66,240–66,070 was not reached. No deep collapse in the pullback; price recovered 67,240, ending this scenario.
8. MTF State
Up / Upward wave. Uphold the rising structure with 63,910 as support. Trading in the 67,620 high area.
Up / Upward wave. Uptrend continuation as long as 66,530 acts as support.
Repose / Downward wave. Rebound to 67,400 signals re-transition to uptrend; break below 66,530 implies a short-term adjustment.
9. Trade Ideas
- Priority: Sub-main idea
- Trigger: After closing above 67,620 on 15m, pullback to 67,620–67,400 with early entry (back-entry).
- Early-entry target: 67,500.
- Primary attainment: 68,000 on 1H close.
- Loss cut / invalidation: Early entry below 67,300, primary below 67,000.
- Targets: T1 = 68,000 (partial profit + cost basis shift), T2 = 68,500.
- RR: With early entry 67,500 and stop at 67,300 (risk 200), T1 +500 RR2.5, T2 +1,000 RR5.0.
- MFE Protection: exit on break-even or small profit at +200, or secure at +300 with trailing. Protect MFE sooner given high price area.
- Priority: Primary
- Standard conditions: pullback to 66,840–66,530 or 66,200–66,070 to form a reversal pattern, confirm with 15m close, then enter early.
- Early-entry target: 66,750 (rebound in 66,840–66,530 zone).
- Primary attainment: 67,400 on 1H close.
- Loss cut / invalidation: Early entry below 66,530, primary below 66,200. Break below 66,070 equals full exit.
- Targets: T1 = 67,400 (partial profit + reposition), T2 = 67,620, 68,000.
- RR: With early entry 66,750 and stop 66,530 (risk 220), T1 +650 RR3.0, T2 +870 RR4.0.
- MFE Protection: exit at break-even or small profit on +200, secure at least +100 with +300 for trailing. When near 67,400–67,620, protect profits early.
- Priority: Low
- Standard conditions: in retracement high near 67,400–67,620, price stalls and then confirms with 15m close; enter early (back-entry).
- Early-entry target: 67,260 (pullback stall).
- Primary attainment: break 66,530 on 1H close.
- Loss cut / invalidation: 67,620 recovery invalidates; 67,400 recovery weakens; 67,620 recovery invalidates strongly.
- Targets: T1 = 66,840 (partial profit + reposition), T2 = 66,530, 66,200.
- RR: With early entry 67,260 and stop 67,400 (risk 140), T1 +420 RR3.0, T2 +1,060 RR7.6. Activation limited after 66,840 breach confirmation.
- Note: If the triggering bar already reached Target 1, skip. Selling in 4H/1H uptrend should be limited to retracements only.
- MFE Protection: exit at break-even or small profit on +200, secure at least +100 with +300 for trailing. Protect on upmoves.
- Priority: Low
- Trigger: Break 66,530 on 15m close (15m and 1H support break indicates upmove may fail).
- Early-entry target: a confirmed break below 66,530.
- Primary attainment: break 66,200 on 1H close.
- Loss cut / invalidation: Early entry recovers above 66,840, primary recovers above 67,260. Full exit upon 67,400 recovery.
- Targets: T1 = 66,200〜66,070 (partial profit + reposition), T2 = 65,570, 63,910.
- RR: With early entry 66,530 and stop 66,840 (risk 310), T1 +330 RR1.1, T2 +960 RR3.1. Activation only after 66,840 breach.
- Note: If the triggering bar already reached Target 1, skip. Selling in 4H uptrend should be cautious against false breakouts.
- MFE Protection: exit at break-even or small profit on +200, secure at least +100 with +300 for trailing. Protect early when near support zones.
10. Current Actions
- Main idea: ② Pullback-buying type
- Secondary main idea: ① Breakout-following type
- Low priority: ③ Retrace-sell type, ④ Break below support type
- Look for a bottom around 67,150〜66,840 or 66,660〜66,530
- Assess a rebound with 67,400 close to re-transition to an upmove
- If 67,620 close is achieved, evaluate a higher-high scenario
- Be cautious of further downside if 66,530 close breaks
11. Points of Attention
Higher timeframes remain bullish, but the 15m has turned to a downward wave. In the high-price area, prioritize MFE protection and enter after confirming a reversal pattern in the pullback zones. The turning price is treated as the point where the wave switches, not the pullback low.
12. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.
Note: This report is for information purposes only and not investment advice. Investment decisions are the reader’s own responsibility.