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たろう
06/01/2026 02:51
Release： 06/01/2026 02:51
Update： 06/01/2026 05:57
たろう
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : -
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The USD/JPY daily close on 5/27 broke above the 78.6% retracement but did not set a new high, and the 78.6% retracement still acts as resistance, suggesting the possibility of further downside.

The daily close on 2026/5/27 exceeded the 78.6% retracement and confirmedit did.


Normally, when the 78.6% retracement is broken above, the high is usually updatedhowever,this time the weekly close did not break above the 78.6% retracement and stayed below, confirmingand,the daily candlestick may revert at the 78.6% retracement support/ Resistance, potentially not updating the high and instead decliningas well.


Cases where the daily close above the 78.6% retracement does not lead to a new highto identify,we built an EA together with Gemini to testand examined it.


Then,testing with data since 2018shows thatthe cases where a new high could not be formedare(A) the daily close on 2018/11/0８Mistake: 2018/08/06after breaking above the 78.6% retracement did not make a new high and declinedand,(B) the daily close on 2024/07/10 after breaking above the 78.6% retracement did not make a new high and declinedout ofthe two locations onlywere observed.



(A) the daily close on 2018/11/08Mistake: 2018/08/06when it broke above the 78.6% retracementAttention to this point showsthe weekly close did not exceed the 78.6% retracement and confirmedand,afterward the daily candlestick formed a 78.6% retracement support-resistance flip and the high was capped, leading to a declineas seen.


(B) the case on 2024/07/10 where the daily close above the 78.6% retracement did not make a new highshows thatthe weekly close confirmation did not relate to the weekly 78.6% retracement, and the move was at the daily time framein nature.



(C) the current case where the daily close on 2026/05/27 exceeded the 78.6% retracementalso indicates thatthe weekly close confirmed last week did not exceed the 78.6% retracement and stayed below, confirmingand,(as with (A)) if the daily candlestick forms a 78.6% retracement support-resistance flip, the price may decline as in (A)in my view.