"I want to win" is dangerous? The common traits of people who are prone to breakdown in the current FX market

Is wanting to win dangerous? Common traits of people who are prone to breakdown in the current FX market

Looking at recent FX markets,

“It's difficult…”

There are probably many traders who feel that way.

In fact, the current USD/JPY market has few instances of a clean, one-way move continuing in one direction.

When it goes up, it suddenly reverses.

When it goes down, it bounces back quickly.

It's become a different environment from the easily understandable trend markets of the past.

In such markets, especially, the number of people who engage in

“unreasonable trades”

increases.

Even in situations where there was no real need to enter the market,

“I want to make some profit somehow”

“I haven’t won today yet”

“There might be a chance because price is moving”

These feelings lead to impulsive entries.

However, the current market has a characteristic: “the harder you work, the more likely you are to break down.”

This is because various factors are mixed in the current market.

Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Speculation about the Bank of Japan’s policy revisions.

Vigilance about currency intervention.

Geopolitical risks such as the Middle East situation.

These factors intertwine, and market participants’ judgments are scattered.

As a result, markets tend to lose direction and swing up and down in short periods.

In other words, in the current market,

“continuing to predict correctly”

rather than

“a market where those who avoid unnecessary entries survive”

is what it’s like.

This difference is especially pronounced in short-term trading.

For example,

one loss.

you want to recover it.

the number of entries increases.

calmness collapses.

and you lose again.

This is a very common pattern.

However, professional traders place importance on the time to wait.

Time spent watching the market and time spent trading are different.

Even if you watch charts constantly, the actual number of entries becomes small.

They are that meticulous about “waiting until conditions are right.”

In the current USD/JPY market, this mindset is especially important.

There are cases where the London or NY sessions move strongly for a moment and then lose direction.

Therefore,

・Trade only during your strong hours

・Skip when price action is volatile

・Step away after a series of losses

・Choose to “not trade today”

These kinds of judgments have become more important than ever.

In FX, the focus often tends to be on “how to win.”

But what is truly important is,

“how not to break”

perhaps.

The market exists every day.

Therefore, there is no need to force a win every day.

Rather, in such difficult markets as now,

“fight only when you feel you can win”

that simple mindset might be the weapon to survive for a long time.

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