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れんみぃ
06/14/2026 18:30
Release： 06/14/2026 18:30
Update： 06/14/2026 18:30
れんみぃ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 10 million - 50 million JPY
I’ve been trading for about 11 years with almost no discretion. I’m the kind of person who spends all my time playing around with my own Expert Advisor.
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EA's Advice 10: Thoughts on what to do when EA suddenly starts losing, considering from a developer's perspective whether to stop or wait

Good morning everyone. I’m Renmi.

This is the 10th article. In the last one (⑨), I talked about managing multiple EAs. This time, it’s about a situation every time you run an EA: the moment you suddenly start losing.

Here is the previous article.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/117638


“It was going well until last month, but since this month began I’ve been losing consecutively,” “the drawdown is increasing step by step, should I keep it running?”—If you’re using an EA, you’ll surely experience this. How you decide at this time determines the success or failure of EA management.

First, distinguish between a “normal loss” and an “abnormal loss”

What you should do first is,check whether the current loss is within expected limits.

Every EA has a metric called “maximum drawdown.” This is the proportion of assets that fell during the worst period in either backtests or real performance.

If the current drawdown is within this range,that is a normal loss. An EA does not guarantee a monthly profit; certain periods of underperformance can occur statistically. It would be premature to panic and stop at this point.

What’s problematic iswhen the drawdown surpasses the previously largest drawdown. That may be a sign that “something has changed.”

What to consider when something has changed

There are several causes for EA to suddenly start losing.

① Change in market environment

The logic of an EA is designed based on a certain market environment. Trend-following EAs struggle in ranging markets, and scalping EAs are affected when volatility changes.

These kinds of underperformances due to market environment changes may recover if the market returns, but they may also mean the new market environment no longer suits the EA. It’s a difficult call.

② Obsolescence of the EA itself

The market is alive. A logic that has been used for years can stop functioning as market participants adapt.

In particular, EAs with a short backtest duration or those optimized for a specific period have a high risk of obsolescence. Unfortunately, many times you can’t wait for it to come back.

③ Your parameter settings problems

As I wrote before in “Thoughts on EA parameter settings (⑧),” if you raise lot sizes too high or tweak parameters, the EA’s original behavior can drift. If you remember changing the settings, reverting to the recommended settings is one option you can try.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/117637

Criteria for whether to stop

Honestly, there isn’t a single clear right answer. However, I’ll share the criteria I keep in mind.

If you are leaning toward waiting:

  • Drawdown is within the range of the past maximum

  • You can explain that market conditions are temporarily biased

  • There is long real-world performance (over 1 year) and in the past similar underperformance recovered

If you are considering stopping:

  • It has clearly surpassed the past maximum drawdown

The most important thing not to do

Decide based on emotions.

Deciding “I’m fed up, stop it” or “let’s wait because it will surely rebound” based on emotion tends to fail. It’s important to look at numbers and facts and judge calmly.

Also, as I wrote before in “Thoughts on EA parameter settings (⑧),”never adjust parameters just because of a slump. Each time you change the settings, the evaluation resets and you can no longer see the true ability of the EA itself.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/117637

By the way, my GTX has publicly shared real-trade results since the end of 2021. The periods of underperformance are recorded as well, so you can check with actual data what kind of market you struggled in and whether you recovered. It can be useful when choosing an EA.

Summary

  • First compare with past maximum drawdown to judge whether it is normal or abnormal

  • Causes of losses are either “change in market conditions,” “EA obsolescence,” or “parameter setting mistakes”

  • Do not judge with emotions. Look objectively at numbers and facts

  • Do not tweak parameters just because of a slump

Whether to stop an EA is also a judgment to be made. Don’t rush; look at the data and decide calmly.

Well then, see you next time!

Renmi’s EA List

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/users/189446/products