[Trail to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260524]

It's Sunday, May 24.

Hello.

Here in the cloudy south Kanto region.
Forecast says it will warm up during the day, so
I’d like to engage in outdoor activities.

Since this week ends the month,
I plan not to trade aggressively.



Now, let’s review.
The figures are at the close of the daily chart.
　　

【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 17th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 11th bar / 6
Weekly volatility: 84 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 51st bar / 26
4HC: 5th or 1st, 14th bar / 5LT or
4HC: 5th or 1st, 9th bar

I interpret it as such.

From now, I expect the U.S. dollar to strengthen.
However, due to month-end flows,
I think movement will be difficult to predict this week.

I’d like to confirm the 4HC turning point in the first half of the week.

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20260524_FX_Market_Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/7ZZutHphf74
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 21st bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 36th bar / 33 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 3rd bar
Weekly volatility: 76 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 13th bar / 12
4HC: 1st cycle, 77th bar / 69

I interpret it as such.

It may not be long before 4HC closes on the chart.
I see monthly-end flow possibly closing the cycle.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 17th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 8th bar / 5
Weekly volatility: 161 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 39th bar / 24 or
Daily: 2nd cycle, 5th bar
4HC: 4th or 1st, 30th bar / 17

I interpret it as such.

Whether 4HC is 1st or 4th is uncertain, but
GBP/USD also seems likely to produce a bearish candle.

If the 4-hour EMA200 is surpassed,
I will shift my view.
And, it would become a RT (Lite Translation).


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 22nd bar / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 15th bar / 10
Weekly volatility: 100 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 13th bar / 5
4HC: 1st cycle, 77th bar / 25

I interpret it as such.

Similar to USD/JPY, it is the time for 4HC to close.
Since the top is leaning left,
there is a high likelihood of an irregular bottom.

Or perhaps the price will rise to make a new high,
and then form a bottom?

It will depend on Tuesday’s movement.


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 22nd bar / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 14th bar / 11
Weekly volatility: 272 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 39th bar / 23
4HC: 3rd cycle, 34th bar / 32

I interpret it as such.

With the 4HC switch for GBP/USD, the rise seems to have been influenced by that.
If USD/JPY stalls, GBP/JPY will be more influenced by GBP/USD.





【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 14th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 14th bar / 13
Weekly volatility: 134 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 39th bar / 32 or
HPC: 2nd cycle, 17th bar / 10
4HC: 4th or 2nd, 20th bar / 13

I interpret it as such.

The Half Primary Cycle (HPC) looks suspect.
If AUD/USD weakens on risk-off,
it will be easily influenced.

If the momentum of AUD/USD’s decline
exceeds the rise in USD/JPY,
AUD/JPY will form a bearish candle.

****************************
20260524_FX_Market_Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/7ZZutHphf74
*****************************


  
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US10Y 4.556 -0.35%
DJI 50,585 USD +294
US500 +0.27%
WTI 95.785 USD
BRN 103.54 USD
Nikkei 225 63,338 yen +1,654
　
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